Seattle's Math Secret Revealed (Revised)

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A few weeks ago I was sworn to secrecy by a Seattle School Board member after he/she revealed a stunning fact:  one of Seattle's middle schools has had an extraordinary, if not meteoric, rise in student math performance.  A middle school with very high levels of underprivileged kids--Mercer Middle School--had student math scores equal to the best in the city.  And he/she had found out why:  without permission from the district, the school's teachers had ditched the district's official curricula (Connected Math), a very poor "discovery" program, for the excellent, and far more traditional Saxon Math series.  That school board member asked me and others to keep quiet about it, because if it got out the District administration (headed by Superintendent Susan Enfield) might well end the experiment.

(For those not familiar with discovery math, it is approach in which "direct instruction" is phased out in favor of having students "discover" math principles on their own.  Lots of talking about the process of discovery, group work is stressed as is calculator usage.  Exercises to encourage competency in basic algorithms are frowned on--they call it "drill and kill.")

Well, today the secret was revealed thanks to a front page Seattle Times article by Brian Rosenthal. As noted by Seattle School Director Kay Smith Blum: "They did it sort of undercover."

 How good are the results at Mercer?  How many ways can you say spectacular?  To start, here is a graphic from the Seattle Times for the percentage of 7th Grade students passing the state math exam.  In 2005, with the WASL, only 33% of the students passed the exam, compared to 47.3% of the students from the entire district.  Mercer Middle School students were lagging behind.  In 2011 on the state MSP exam, students at Mercer WERE DOING BETTER than the district average. (NOTE:  you can't compare the two years directly--different exams!!, but you can compare differences within the district)

But let me show you some graphics based on this year's State MSP math exam (thanks to Paul Dunham for providing the data). These plots show you the performance of several middle schools, with the schools in order of percentage of students on free and reduced lunch.  The ones on the left are schools with rich demographics and on the right, schools with poorer students. Mercer is the second from the right in all of them. In general you would expect the richer, more privileged students to do better for the obvious reasons.

First lets compare the performance of the various schools for blacks, hispanics, and asians.  Mercer is the best for blacks and hispanics, and a close second for asians.

Or how about low income and limited-English kids in 6th grade?  Mercer is the best!
 Seventh Grade?  Mercer is the best for low income and second best for limited English.
The district has had a huge problem of minority and underprivileged kids doing much worse in math than the rest of the district.  Mercer has essentially solved the problem by going against the district's chosen curriculum.

Here is more proof it is the changed math curriculum that has made the difference.  Take a look at the 8th grade math performance at Mercer compared to other Seattle middle schools:
Mercer's performance has worsened compared to the others.  There is a reason.  According to a teacher from Mercer who left a comment on this blog, Mercer does not use Saxon in the 8th grade..only 6th and 7th, and only for struggling students.  Thus, student performance starts to decline relative to other schools in 8th grade.  This really is unfortunate.  It is like finding someone that is drowning.   You throw them a life preserver and they think they are saved.  Then you take the life preserver away and let them flail in the water again.  Just not right.

This underground experiment is not the only in the city.  Two schools in the city: Schmitz Park and North Beach Elementary (see PS below) have gotten permission for limited periods to use non-discovery, more traditional math books.   The result:  HUGE increases in learning and performance of their students.    For example, Schmitz Park Elementary got permission to try Singapore Math textbooks in 2007 (traditional direct instruction).  Its students’ math scores soared: in 2010 the 5th graders had the third highest passing rate in the state on the state test, even though the school has no gifted magnet program.

In some of my previous blogs, I have also described what has happened in other districts when Discovery Math has been replaced by excellent curricula such as Saxon or Singapore.  Scores have jumped substantially in math.

Now the district administration knows about this.  In fact, Superintendent Susan Enfield was asked by the Seattle Times whether she knew about the phenomenal results at Schmitz Park and North Beach (you can watch it below).  She did and her basic answer was that they have a core (Discovery) curriculum and the district is going to stick to it.  Just amazing.  Stunning results do not matter to her at all.  In fact, Dr. Enfield is a proponent of Discovery math and pushed the Discovering Math high school series when she was curriculum head.

Click to see Enfield Interview by Seattle Times
The bottom line of all thisIt is now absolutely clear from a huge amount of evidence that discovery math programs don't work and that they particularly hurt minorities, the disadvantaged, and those with weaker English skills.  They also hurt the top demographics as well.  Seattle has extraordinarily poor discovery math at all levels (Everyday Math-elementary, Connected Math-middle schools, Discovering Math-high schools). Suburban districts like Shoreline and Bellevue have dropped discovery math after seeing it undermine student performance.  Enfield, is clearly not interested in replacing the current curricula and it is up to parents and the school board to force this issue. (As noted in my earlier blogs, discovery math is like a religion to many in the educational community, particularly schools of education.  The latest fad in a long line of failed fads).  The current curricula are crippling the futures of Seattle's kids.  You would think the district would be designing experiments in many of its schools to see which method of instruction works best and then to move to the superior method... it is not.  Imagine, testing various curricula with classes of similar demographics and learning what works and doesn't.  Use this approach to steadily improve instruction and student performance.   You would think that any rational and concerned district would try such a scientific approach.  Not Seattle Public Schools.

If you are a Seattle parent let school board members know what you think, if you are a business, tell the district administration that policies must change.  Susan Enfield is now only interim and the school board will vote in the next few weeks whether to give her a permanent contract--which would be a disaster for our kids.  It is time for a change from her failed policies (and disasters like the firing a popular Ingraham HS principal), and hopefully with the assistance of two new school board members, the district can finally follow logic and the evidence of student performance, and the not the ideological leanings of several in the school district administration.  Superintendent Enfield is so confident of her position she has told the board that if they dared to open the selection processes to consider others, she would remove herself from consideration.  There is a word for such an attitude, but it doesn't belong in a family oriented blog like this one.

PS:   Here is a comment I received that is so relevant and important, I am posting it here:

I was fortunate to be the principal who brought Saxon Math (after the teachers voted for its use)to Seattle’s North Beach Elementary in 2001. I had used it as a teacher and principal on the Spokane Indian Reservation in the early 1990s and we saw great success with Saxon’s traditional material. The Seattle district staff were stressed by my choice of Saxon because it is used, they declared, primarily with lower performing (high risk) students and North Beach was 80% upper middle class. But the supt at the time stressed site-based decision making, so we took advantage of that policy. Saxon Publishers allowed us to be a pilot site with free materials for K-2 the first year.
The next year, our parents and teachers were so supportive of Saxon’s effects on our students, the PTA raised money to buy materials for grades K-5. Saxon Publishers also gave us some special rates. Within 4 years, these “white” kids with their 66% math passing rate in 2000, had achieved 91% passing (for 4th graders at the time). We had proved that curriculum makes a HUGE difference for every economic group of students.
After I left North Beach in 2004, there were concerted efforts by district staff to get rid of Saxon Math. You see, results for the children are rarely the issue in math curriculum choices by urban districts’ decision makers. It’s about being a “team player” with the adults in charge, who follow a particular ideological path of reform materials for creating equity in classrooms, not excellence in mathematics.
The North Beach math scores have dropped precipitously as some assigned principals have fought the parents’ and teachers’ use of Saxon.
By the way, even if Saxon were for only the lower performing kids, that means it should be used by 50% of the nation’s students and 70% of those in urban districts.


The Irony of Wintertime High Pressure

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High pressure is good, right?   Sunny skies, light winds, and dry conditions?  A nice break from stormy, wet conditions?  Not necessarily true here over the western lowlands during cool season.  For us, high pressure often brings something I personally dislike more than storms---endless low clouds.  And often air pollution as well.

It is Saturday morning and here is the latest visible satellite picture.  Low clouds over the Willamette Valley and western Washington lowlands.  There are clear skies over the mountains, along much of the coast, and yes over those fortunate folks in Sequim and Victoria.  Some higher clouds are found over eastern Washington from a weak system moving southward out of Canada.


As shown by this morning's surface pressure chart. high pressure dominates our region, with the center of the high pressure offshore.  No storms, no rain, no snow.  The pressure gradients over us are weak and the winds are light.  It appears that we are going to be stuck in this pattern for the next week.   Lucky us.


The problem is that in the Northwest, high pressure around during the winter is a low cloud production machine.  First, with a high over us or nearby the winds are light, since the large pressure changes (gradients) are at the periphery of highs.  Less winds means less turbulent mixing of air in the vertical.  Highs generally bring sinking air in the troposphere and thus lack of middle and higher layer clouds.   Lack of clouds means the earth can effectively radiate infrared radiation to space and thus cool the surface.  The cooling surface cools the very lowest portions of the atmosphere.  Air can cool to saturation and give you fog and low clouds.

Saturday morning in Seattle.  Mt. Rainier is straight ahead.  See it?
And having cool air near the surface and warmer air above leads to an inversion--temperatures increasing with height.  And inversions cause the atmosphere to become very stable, with little mixing in the vertical (think of oil above water).  No mixing means you can't bring the warmer air aloft down to the surface...and one stays cool and murky.  Here are the latest temperatures at Seattle--you can see the inversion from 200 to 500 meters above the surface (immediately above the surface there is an issue of a different temperature sensor)
And did I mention that the very long nights this time of the year gives the surface a lot of time to cool and the weak sun hardly produces enough warming to heat the surface and mix this out?  The same weather pattern in the summer would be no problem...we would have sun after perhaps some morning clouds.

And it gets worse.   Since we have had rain for a while the surface is moist, with lots of water to give to the atmosphere, and with high pressure offshore, moisture streams in at low levels off the ocean.  And once in place fog and low clouds cool at the top (infrared cooling to space) and tend to reinforce themselves.  Diabolical.

Now today and tomorrow, the inversion will be weak and shallow enough for there to be a good chance it will mix out a bit this afternoon and give us some sun. Good time to rake leaves or take a walk.   But as we get into next week, we will probably experience days in which we stay in the murk all day.  The good news is that you can get out of this by going up...head to the mountains or even a high park--such as Cougar Mountain regional park.  Or take a walk up Tiger Mountain (top 2500ft). The worst place to be is the southern Sound lowlands.

Finally, a major issue with such situations is air quality.  Inversions and light winds bring deteriorating conditions and in fact the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency has a burn ban going on right now.   Just to prove to you that air quality is declining, here are some plots from two local reporting stations.  We are now seeing moderate  AQ conditions and it won't be long before we are in unhealthy ones. 



Anyway, it helps to know what is going on and that escape is always possible with a short drive.  It gives one a sense of control.

History is Made: Highest Pressure in Sea-Tac History!

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We are living through historic weather.    UW's Neal Johnson ran the numbers and found that the sea level pressure at Seattle-Tacoma Airport today was the highest since record keeping began there in 1948.  Here are the top pressures since 1948, starting with the highest pressure first.

2011 12 01 08 1043.4
2011 12 01 07 1043.3
2011 12 01 09 1043.2
2011 12 01 10 1043.2
2011 12 01 11 1043.1
1949 01 28 16 1043.0
1949 01 28 17 1043.0
1949 01 28 14 1042.7
2011 12 01 06 1042.6
1949 01 28 13 1042.3
1949 01 28 15 1042.3
1949 01 28 18 1042.3
1949 01 28 19 1042.3
1957 01 16 10 1042.3
1957 01 16 11 1042.3

Last night at midnight Sea-Tac hit 1043.4 hPa, smashing the old record of 1043.0 hPa.

According to the Weather Underground site the highest pressure in Seattle occurred on 12/3/1921 (1043.90 hPa), but that was at a very different location (downtown Seattle, not the airport) and thus not a fair comparison.

I hope someone contacts Ripley's Believe It or Not. 
 

Highest Pressure in Decades Over The Northwest?

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Do you feel the pressure?  Is it like the weight of the world is on your shoulders?  There may be a reason:  right now we are experiencing some of the highest atmospheric pressures in years and probably decades.

Take a look at the National Weather Service sea level pressure analysis at 7 PM (below).


A very strong high pressure area is centered over the Northwest and southwest Canada, with pressures greater than 1040 hPa over much of the region and a 1046 hPa center over southern BC.  1046 hPa is equivalent to 30.89 inches of mercury.  Folks, this is REALLY high sea level pressure.  At Sea-Tac the 9 pm pressure was 1042.6 hPa--and it is still going up!  There has been a huge pressure rise over the past 24h--roughly 20 hPa. The highest SLP I see at 9 PM is 1045.2 hPa at Lytton BC (elev 751 ft).

From experience I know these pressures are very unusual, but lets check the UW pressure archives.  Here are the hourly pressures at Sea-Tac airport since 1996.  Looks to me like the pressure last hour (9PM Wednesday is the final plotted red dot) was the highest during the entire record shown here (I confirmed by looking at the numbers).  So the highest pressure in 15 years!  That is impressive.

And the pressure is still going up!  The Portland International Airport has recorded a maximum barometric pressure reading of 30.76" (4:53am observation) which is tied for the second highest reading since records began at the airport in 1940 (thanks to Steve Pierce for this information). The bottom line is that we are experiencing truly unusual pressure right now...I wonder what this does to people with arthritis and sensitive joints.

 This push of high pressure over the Northwest is creating huge pressure gradients over the southwest U.S.  Here is the latest model prediction for tomorrow morning.  High pressure over us and a big pressure differences over Colorado, Utah, Nevada, California, and the offshore waters.


Very strong winds will be the result of these big pressure gradients, including gusts hitting 50-80 mph in places.   In fact, it has already started.  Take a look at the latest wind reports of greater than 45 mph over the western U.S.---quite a few of them.


And here are some recent reports from the National Weather Service office near Los Angeles.  Gusts as high as 69 mph so far.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
802 PM PST WED NOV 30 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0557 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW SANTA CLARITA 34.42N 118.53W
11/30/2011 M67 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

67 MPH GUST AT SAUGUS RAWS LOCATED 1450 FT

0555 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N SAN FERNANDO 34.36N 118.42W
11/30/2011 M64 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

64 MPH HOUR GUST AT CAMP NINE RAWS LOCATED AT 4000 FT

0753 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ESE CASTAIC LAKE 34.60N 118.58W
11/30/2011 M69 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

69 MPH GUST AT WARM SPRINGS RAWS LOCATED AT 4930 FT


High pressure will bring us dry conditions and some sun...but air quality may decline.

Climatologically, The Worst of Winter is Over!

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Yes, you read that right.

The last week or two of November is climatologically the worst period of the year by many measures.   For example, consider the average precipitation per day at Sea-Tac Airport (below).  It peaks in last November and most of December is a drier.


Or how about extreme daily precipitation at the same location?


Big peaks in November and a radical reduction in extreme precipitation in December. 

Just like clockwork there is going to be a major break in the coming up this week, but first we have to get through one more storm. A low center and accompanying clouds and precipitation is moving towards us from the northwest and should bring precipitation to the region late tomorrow and Wednesday AM.  You can see it off our coast in this satellite image:


This system should be unremarkable. After that a very strong ridge will build northward into the eastern Pacific and will remain in place for at least a week.  You heard me...a week.

Like Wednesday morning

Thursday morning


 Friday morning
Saturday morning


You get the idea.  And we will have lots of sun...and some fog in the AM.  The biggest threat to your life and safety will be ice on the roadways.  Will we have another big storm...of course we will. And a good chance of some lowland snow.  But ON AVERAGE things typically improve as we move out of late November into December.

The National Weather Service has this regime going into next week...here is their latest 6-10 day precipitation forecast:  below normal in the West.


 This looks like a good time for local meteorologists to go on vacation.  Or to rake some leaves.

PS:  I know "official" winter starts on December 22 and ends in March.   The point is that calendar winter is really quite different than meteorological winter in many parts of the country...and we are a good example of that.    Around here the end of February could really be considered the end of winter....sun is much stronger, far less weather systems, chance of flooding goes to near zero, etc.  And the grass starts growing again on the west side of the Cascades.  When I have to mow my lawn, winter is over..period.

Why is Northwest Washington So Windy?

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It seems like it occurs during nearly every storm.  Before a front or low center hits our region, one area gets winds first--and they are often very strong and from the southeast .  We are talking gusts about 50 mph and higher in the stronger events.  And then after the storm moves by, they get hit by powerful winds from west.

What is this benighted region, one in which Seattle TV stations often stage their camera crews for dramatic wind shots?

The answer:  Northwest Washington...the region extending north and west of Everett, over northern Whidbey Island, to the San Juans and down to the NE tip of the Olympic Peninsula.

Why is this region so windblown?  And why only certain directions? Why can the winds be blowing at gale force there, while Seattle is practically calm?  I will try to explain in this blog.  We have had a number of major NW Washington wind events this month and another will hit tomorrow (Sunday, 11/27).

Northwest Wind Land
I got my first personal taste of the NW Washington winds in the 80s while I spent the night at Rosario Resort  on Orcas Island.  The winds came up quickly that night and they were roaring!  Just heaven.

A mild event is going on right now (Saturday, 9 PM).   Here are the winds:

Calm in Seattle and Port Angeles.  Very light winds at Sequim and Victoria. 30 knot sustained winds at Smith Island and northern Whidbey Island. Gust over 40 mph.  These radical differences in weather over short distances are why we love Northwest weather!

Sunday morning things will really be blowing: here is the lasted WRF model forecast of sustained winds at 4 AM.  Sustained winds of 40 kts (46 mph)...with higher gusts, of course.


 So why the strong winds?  One reason is the extensive amount of water in the area and winds blow much stronger over water because it is aerodynamically smooth.  But there is something else....the OLYMPICS!.   The mountains distort the local pressure field, with pressure being increased on the windward side and decreasing on the leeward side.  The winds in these situations are almost always from the south...thus there is high pressure on the southern flanks of the Olympics (rising air causing cooling and cool air is more dense and thus results in higher pressure) and lower pressure (leeside trough) on the northern side where air sinks and warms by compression.  Here is a graphic of the situation at the same time as the previous figure...the lines are isobars (lines of constant pressure) and the wind barbs are shown too.   See the distortion of the isobars by the Olympics?  Nice lee low by Port Angeles and Sequim.  Do you see how the distortion caused the isobars to bunch up from roughly Everett to Whidbey Island?  Such a large change in pressure is called a large pressure gradient.  That causes the winds to accelerate greatly as the air moves from higher to lower pressure....and is the essential cause of the strong winds observed tonight and on Sunday....and many other times!


You need good southerly flow approaching the Olympics to get this effect...and such southerlies often precede a strong front or accompany an approaching low that is headed to the north of us.  In fact, when a low goes north there is a background south to north pressure difference that can really add to the strength of the southerlies forced by the Olympic effect noted above.  Here is a larger scale view of the pressure situation tomorrow at 4 AM... a strong front IS approaching.


Just to show how windy Smith Island (just west of Whidbey Is) can get, take a look at he recent max gusts there.  Lots of 35-40 kt gusts the last day and nearly 60 kts on the 24th.


But wait until tomorrow morning! You can check the winds yourself at this site:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/NW_Straits_Sound.shtml

Weather Gifts

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Today is Black Friday when many people are thinking about getting that perfect gift for friends, loved ones, and even for yourself!

Why hit the malls for a sweater or electronic luxury when you can get a weather-related present? 
A weather gift is great for that budding young meteorologist or to determine the weather at one's home or business.  To connect in an intimate way with the environment around you. I have gotten a lot of questions over the years about the best weather stations or weather instruments--and I will answer some of them here.  You don't have to spend a lot of money on weather gear to get a good start, and remember many of the founding fathers of our country (Washington, Jefferson, and Franklin) were weather enthusiasts and took their own observations for years!  To quote Benjamin Franklin:   

Some are weatherwise; some are otherwise.

My own career in meteorology began with a Lionel weather station my parents gave me as a nine-year old.

Books and Calendars


     It is always good to read up on the subject.  Now, of course I am biased and recommend my own book:  The Weather of the Pacific Northwest, available in local bookstores and online (Amazon, Barnes and Noble, etc).  This book was written for layman and has lots of color pictures and graphics and is reasonably priced ($20-30).

 You want a general introduction to weather?   A good book, although  pricy, is the textbook I used in Atmospheric Sciences 101:  Essentials of Meteorology by Donald  Ahrens. The new books are an absolute rip-off (like $140!) but you can get used books for $20-30. (Some day I will blog about the corrupt textbook publishing industry).  Get an old edition...essentially the same.
AMS Weather Books also has an accessible introduction to weather and only costs around $25.00:  The Ultimate Guide to America's Weather.
A weather calendar is also a nice gift, particularly one directed towards your area, with information about daily climatology and records.  Well, the Washington Weather Calendar is available for only $14 and has local weather records and average conditions for each day...plus, $1 of each calendar helps support the UW Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society.

Cloud Charts

   Want to learn the clouds and get a nice poster at the same time?  Get a large cloud chart! Perhaps the best was created by UW's Art Rangno and is available at many outlets and online for only about $7.00! 


Inexpensive Weather Instruments


  Want to start observing the weather but your budget is limited?   Rain gauges are both fun,  useful, and relatively inexpensive.  You can pick up garden rain gauges for $10-15 at garden stores or Lowes/Home Depot, or you get a truly high-quality gauge for around $30.  A good one is used in the Cocorah national rain gauge network and can be order online at http://www.ambientweather.com/strgloteprra.html (see below)



Remote temperature sensors are also reasonably prices ($20-30) and can be purchased at local stores (Bartell, Fred Meyer) or online.
These units are relatively accurate and give you high and low temperatures.

Complete Weather Stations

For real enthusiasts who have more available funds, a complete weather station might be what you want.  Such units measure temperature, humidity, pressure, precipitation, and wind speed and direction--and for more money you can get even capabilities (e.g., solar radiation).   The quality of these units range from modest to professional quality and prices extend from just over one hundred dollars to a thousand dollars and more.  Many allow you to interface your weather statoin to a computer for display and archival, as well as putting your data on the web in real time.

Based on our experience at the UW interacting with many networks and installations, probably the best deal (quality and price combined) is for the Davis Vantage Pro systems. The Vantage Pro 2 costs about $500:
Cheaper unit, but not as good, are available online, Costco, and other outlets. A good list of them is available at: http://www.weathershack.com/home-weather-stations.html

Few activities are as enjoyable as understanding and observing the weather, and these gifts give you a good start at it.


An Extraordinary Storm

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This is turning out to be a major winter storm, with serious rainfall, flooding, and winds.  And it is not over yet...some of the biggest action is yet to come.  This event is also spotlighting a lot of new technology:  coastal radars, super-hi resolution modeling, and others.

A lot of the rain is still yet to come, but consider the rainfall of the last 48h as shown in our RainWatch site:


Over five inches near the Hood Canal area and 2-3 inches extending eastward to the Cascades where precipitation picks up again.   You can add at least another inch or two to this before the event is over.  However, the real precipitation hot spot is to the south over the southern Cascades and northern Oregon coastal mountains.  Here is the latest storm precipitation total from the Portland radar (not as well calibrated as the above image) at 8:23 PM Tuesday (roughly past 48h):


Some values in the southern Cascades reaching 8 inches according to the radar.  Several raingauges there have reported 5-6 inches over the past 24 hr.

The National Weather Service is now predicting flooding on several rivers, some with moderate flooding, as seen by this figure from their website:

A particular threat is for the Chehalis River, where moderate flooding is predicted--although there is lots of rivers flooding over southwest WA and NE Oregon.  Even the Snoqualmie is getting to bankfull.  The Skokomish always floods...but that is another story.

A few of you have commented that this seems too cool for a pineapple express event and you are right.  This is not a classic pineapple express event in which warm, moist air feeds up from deep in the tropics and subtropics.  Temperatures are far more moderate and a look at the cloud shows that moisture is streaming from the southwest but not down to the vicinity of Hawaii (see picture).  In fact, some of the moisture can be traced back far, far to the west--perhaps we should call it the Sushi Express.


But the other story here is wind and we have had some amazing winds...including 97 mph at Mt. Hebo in the Oregon coastal mountains, 70 mph at Bellingham, 70-85 mph on the Cascade crests, and 60-70 mph gusts all along the Washington and Oregon coasts.  But the big action is about to happen over the Oregon coast, where the WRF high-resolution model is going for sustained 50 kt winds tonight, with higher gusts (see graphic).  If you are on the Oregon coast, you better get some batteries.
Forecast winds at 1 AM Wednesday
 The new coastal radar has been a real boon to local meteorologists during this event...telling us what is coming and how long the rain will continue.  Here is a great shot showing a front (narrow line with red embedded) approach the coast last night...a front that represented the temporary end of rain this morning:

 The models have really been good--getting the timing and major features correct.

And did I mention the over a foot of snow in the mountain passes today and more over the North Cascades.  With high to extreme avalanche danger as all this wet heavy snow falls on the light snow with embedded weak layers.  This is really a good time to be a local weather lover...more action than one can keep track of.

Major Storm: Heavy Rain, Flooding and Very Strong Winds Along the Coast

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A VERY serious storm is going to hit the Northwest during the next two days--one that will cause flooding and coastal wind damage.  And the urban areas are doing to experience a deluge.

Here is the forecast precipitation over the next 48h over the region and over western Washington.The Olympics, the north Cascades, and the mountains of southwest Washington and NW Oregon are going to get hammered with 5-10 inches of rain (reds).   Even Seattle will get nearly 4-5 inches if this forecast verifies.

Folks, this will be a major event.


There is a serious threat of flooding on a number of rivers.  The Skokomish is a given.  It looks like there will be flooding of the Chehalis...and that means those near the river should prepare.  The NWS River Forecast Center is going for a major flood at points along the Chehalis....here is an example:

And there are others that I won't list now.

The other threat of this event is wind--HUGE winds along the Washington and Oregon coasts (worst along the Oregon coast).  Take a look at this forecast of sustained winds for 1 AM on Wednesday morning.  Sustained winds of 50 kts with gusts heading to 70-80.


The Washington coast will get the strong winds earlier...tonight...see below:
Regarding snow, the models are putting a few feet over the north Cascade...and far less to the south where the freezing level will be relatively high.  An interesting aspect of this case is that it is NOT a pineapple express event with a moisture plume extending from just north of Hawaii.

Anyway, I believe a major storm event is about to unfold...and it will be fascinating to use the new Langley Hill radar.
 
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