The most extensive precip is south of the city, but some strong bands to the north. Light snow last hour at Sea Tac in the southern band, and Port Angeles and Friday Harbor in the northern features. Too warm for snow at sea level--Sea Tac is at 452 feet. In heavy precip, the snow level can descend to the surface. Hard to get snow to the surface...
Sunday Night Update
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Tonight's run has pulled back on the lowland snow (see graphic for 24-h snow ending 4 PM). I wanted all of you to see how even this close in forecasts can vary when the atmosphere is on the edge (in this case rain versus snow). One thing that hasn't changed is the snow in the mountains...they are going to get hit very, very hard, with 2-3 feet in...
Snow Tomorrow Morning? Windstorm on Wednesday?
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Folks...I don't want to cry wolf about this...but if you take the current model output literally, we will have a significant lowland snow event after midnight tonight. What gets me nervous is that my colleagues in the National Weather Service are not mentioning the possibility at all in their forecast or discussion.Here is the 24-h snowfall map for...
The Olympia Mystery
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SEE UPDATE AT END!You've heard of the Bermuda Triangle. Perhaps the Dragon's Triangle of the Pacific. But there is another mystery of science...the Olympia Cold Anomaly.Its amazing and beyond our understanding.For some reason on cold, clear nights Olympia Airport is often the coldest location in western Washington...often by far. Last night Olympia...
How Good (or Bad) Was the Snow Forecast?
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There have been some complaints about the recent snow forecasts in some quarters. The Seattle Times will run a story tomorrow "Forecasts for Snowfall in Seattle Goes Cold", several of you have commented about poor snow forecasting of this event, and even one prominent local TV weathercaster noted that sometimes he has to admit to making a mistake...
Snowstuff
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Right now there are a few snow showers, but nothing serious (see radar above). We will progressively dry out during the day and much cooler temperatures (twenties to high teens) will be experienced tonight.I plan on writing a blog tonight about the quality of the snow forecast and the role of the media. Bottom line: the forecast was not as bad as...
Evening Info
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Above is a nice summary of what has happened so far--24h total precipitation from the Seattle Rainwatch web site. You can see the heaviest precipitation was in a band extending from Victoria eastward to Skagit County. Some folks there have gotten 6-12 inches...and even more. Here is a video from one of them this morning:The other thing that the...
NOWCAST 4:45 PM: SHOWTIME
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Folks...the big threat for central Puget Sound...the one suggested by the model's last night is coming up now.So far things have gone pretty much on track.... we started with rainshadowing over Seattle and the southern Sound. The as the flow turned more southwesterly the rainshadow shifted northward and the southern Sound had increased snow showers....
11 AM NOWCAST: ACT II
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We are now coming to the close of the first act of today's weather drama. To bring up-to-date with the plot.....With westerly to NW central Puget Sound has been rainshadowed by the Olympics and virtually nothing has fallen...except for some ice pellet shows in a few locations. In fact, some places had blue skies! On the other hand, Skagit County...
6 AM NOWCAST: Seattle Commute In Will Be Fine
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Here is the story at 6 AM. The commute for Seattle and to its west should be uneventful. The winds aloft are still westerly aloft that we are in the rainshadow of the Olympics and that should not change much before 8 AM. As normal for rainshadow, precipitation picks up in the eastern suburbs east of Lake Sammamish. Snow showers are moving into...
Tuesday Update
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Folks...this is serious. So serious that Ivar's is canceling my presentation tomorrow night at their Mukilteo Landing Restaurant....looks like we will try March 9th.There has been plenty of snow already in the convergence zone.....here is a recent radar image, See the band with green in the middle...that is the convergence zone.Some locations have...
Snow and Cold are Coming
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Update 10:30 PM: Lots of report of ice pellets, graupel, and wet snow in the convergence zone and in the foothills. New model runs in...still very threatening for snowUpdate 7:15 PM--the convergence zone has formed and I can hear ice pellets on my window!I am going to go out on a limb now...I think most of you ...even those in the lowlands ...will...
Snow Mirage
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You have seen it many times...Driving down a hot road during the summertime you see some water on the road... and when you get there... it is gone... The road is perfectly dry. The famous water on the road mirage (due to the bending of light from sky by the heating roadway)Here is a video of a water on the road mirage (also called an inferior mirage):...
Coastal Snow
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So close and yet so far....The latest visible satellite photo says it all....the low center is spinning offshore of our coast, too far to bring precipitation into the Puget Sound and Northwest WA lowlands. As a result it is sunny over much of the WA interior but precipitating and even snowing along the coast. Here is Forks:Or Cosmopolis, WA:Not a...
Lowland Snow Chances Fading on Thursday
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Forecasting snow over the western Washington and Oregon lowlands is a subtle game. To get snow, everything needs to set up right...and as I have noted before, it is easy for us to be mild and wet or cold and dry, but to be cold and wet takes some doing around here.The models on Monday looked like we had a significant shot at lowland snow, particularly...
