This is serious now

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The latest forecast models are in...and this looks worse and worse. Ground zero between midnight and 6 AM on the Washington coast. Here is the latest reports from buoy 46050 off of Newport....pressure falling rapidly and winds surging to 50 kts.



Take a look at the latest WRF 12-km model sea level pressure forecasts for 10 PM and 4 AM...an intense area of pressure change on the coast. I have the surface winds at 1 AM and 4 AM.
Sustained winds around 40 kts on the coast with higher guest. Also very strong winds developing in the Strait of Georgia. And it will be blustery elsewhere.

The Storm

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A really interesting event is occurring--one the shows the strengths and weaknesses of weather prediction technology. Here is the latest infrared satellite image (for 5 PM) of the approaching storm. Can you see the swirl of clouds off of the Oregon coast? The low is closely associated with that swirl. However, there is some hint of a double center (the second one NW of the obvious one).

As the occluded front associated with the low moved up the CA and Oregon coasts there was a strengthening of the coastal winds, with 30-50 kts winds all over the place. At Cape Blanco, a normally windy spot (the ID is K92S), there were sustained winds of 67 knots with gusts to 80. This is hurricane force.

Now a big problem for the weather community is that many of the offshore weather buoys are A map of coastal buoys from NOAA

broken. All the NOAA buoys along 130W..which could have given us a good idea of what we are dealing with are broken! The further offshore buoy (46006) is broken. Every year this seems to happen...a few good storms and the buoys go kaput. A lot of the fishermen/women in Oregon and Washington are angry about this issue, but it is expensive to fix those offshore buoys and it doesn't seem to get done. Another reason why a coastal radar will be very helpful---it isn't taken out by rough seas.

A major forecast issue is then---where exactly is the low and how strong is it? Single or double? How good are this morning's numerical forecasts? My viewing of the imagery and what observations we do have suggest the storm is further south and west of the predicted location. (If had a radar on the Oregon coast we would know for sure!). That implies that the northern Oregon and Washington coasts are going to get hit harder...with more potential for the western interiors to pick up some winds.

Thankfully two close in buoys are still working! 46089 is due west of the Columbia River bars shows rapidly falling pressure and winds surging to nearly 45 kts. Buoy 46050, just west of Newport, is showing the same kind of thing.


Anyway, we will have a fun few hours this evening finding out what will happen. The strongest action won't be till after midnight along the north coast. A good night for a coastal storm party...but have plenty of flashlights and candles. The National Weather Service has a high wind warning out for the Oregon and Washington coasts. This is going to be a powerful wind event on the Washington coast--I expect some power outages and some downed trees.

Coastal Winds

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The new high resolution forecasts (4km grid spacing, initialed 4 AM) are in and the potential for a significant coastal wind event remains. Here are two plots of sea level pressure and surface wind speed for 4PM, 10 PM, and 4 AM, starting on Sunday afternoon. A deep low center moves up the coast and sustained winds on the coast are 45-50 kts. Gusts could easily be 15-20 kts higher.

Some of you have noted the tendency for coastal acceleration..and this does occur--in fact I just finished a paper on coastal windstorms where I talk about this effect. The interaction of onshore flow with the coastal terrain produces the speed up.


The Portland NWS has now put up a storm watch for the Oregon coastal waters. From their statement:
A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

The 10 am run is just in and the story has not been changed.
Here is the sea level pressure and precip chart for Monday
morning. One low after another rotating around. And California
is going to get hit hard with precipitation...a classic for El
Ninos.



The First Coastal Wind Event

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The latest model runs have come in and the first major coastal wind event looks like it will hit southern Oregon/N. CA during the middle to late afternoon on Sunday (see graphic below of sea level pressure and wind speed at 4 PM Sunday. These are sustained winds (averaged over roughly 10 minutes)...not gusts, which can be considerably higher. The reds are sustained winds of 50 kts (hurricane strength winds are 64 kts or more). Certainly, the gusts will make that. These strong winds are associated with a tight low that moves up the coast, while weakening. By 4 AM the low and strong winds will reach Washington (see other graphic).


The Medford NWS folks have put out this statement:
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WEST OF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW...SOUTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NEAR WARNING LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH...HIGHEST
ALONG THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY.
COAST.

There are still at number of additional strong systems later in the week and
uncertainty is considerable.

A Major Coastal Wind Event?

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Friday Morning Update:

A strong current of S and SW flow is now hitting our region, with high winds aloft: check out the winds at the Seattle profiler...50 kts sustained a few thousand feet above the surface. (graphic) The rain over the past 24 h is shown in the second figure.
Intense rain is falling on and near the Olympics. Keep away from the Skokomish River!


Old Part

From Sunday night on, a very deep upper low will build over the eastern Pacific and a series of disturbances--some very strong--will move northward along the offshore waters. I mean four or more of them. Now our predictions have modest skill that far, but it looks like someone along the NW coast--between northern CA and Vancouver Is-- is going to get savaged. Want to see one of these storms? Or another? Or another? Or another? (graphics below with sea level pressure). Pretty impressive.

These are events that could bring hurricane force gusts to the coast. A multiple event with such strong components is not common. And heavy rain will strike the Olympics and N. Cascades through the weekend and then move into California. That is a story in its own--coastal CA and even the northern Baja should get very heavy rains if the current models are correct. The reason--a strong jet stream moving directly towards them with embedded disturbances.

Will be watching very carefully the next few days...


Friday Morning Update:
A strong current of S and SW flow is now hitting our region, with high winds aloft: check out the winds at the Seattle profiler...50 kts sustained a few thousand feet above the surface. (graphic) The rain over the past 24 h is shown in the second figure.
Intense rain is falling on and near the Olympics. Keep away from the Skokomish River!


El Nino, Snow, and the Olympics

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There have been a number of calls today about the influence of the recent warm weather on the snowpack, and many were about the upcoming winter games in British Columbia. Big news today: Cypress Mountain near Vancouver, the future venue for freestyle skiing and snowboarding, was closed to protect its rapidly thinning snowpack. An observing site on the mountain at 3100 ft went from 43 inches of snow on 1 January down to 27 inches today. Not good. But I suspect they will be ok, due to the aggressive snow mining and snow making operations, and the inevitability that there will be some cooler periods when they can build up the snow pack both naturally and artificially. Those Canadians are determined to pull this off and they probably will. And they have a very experienced team of weather forecasters and lots of additional weather gear.

The problem of course is El Nino. As shown in the figure below, the tropical Pacific is much warmer than normal, and the second figure shows the variation of central Pacific surface temperature ( the famous Nino 3.4 zone) is roughly 1.5C above normal. Both of these figures suggest a moderate El Nino right now and this is NOT going to change during the next few months.
As I have explained before El Ninos are associated with above normal temperatures and below normal precip after January 1. And substantially lower than normal spring snowpacks. Now, lets be careful...this is a correlation, not an exact prediction. El Nino winters tend to have less snow, but some have had more than normal. Now the problem we have is that we are starting the El Nino season with a below normal snowpack (see the latest values in graphic below). Lots of the NW is 65-80% of normal. And the latest long-term prediction of the Climate Prediction Center reflects the El Nino correlation (see graphics below). Warmer than normal from Washington to the upper Plains. Wetter and cooler than normal along the southern tier of states.

So let me be blunt: I wouldn't run out and buy a season pass at Snoqualmie Summit right now...but you probably suspected that.



We are in a break right now, but tomorrow (Thursday) strong SW flow will redevelop and heavy rain will again hit the SW sides of the Olympics, the mountains of Vancouver Island, and the N. Cascades. Snow level will rise. Winds will pick up again over NW Washington and along the coast. AGAIN! And the current model runs showing this repeated several times during the next week. The general pattern is pretty locked down, so get used to it.

Here is a marvelous graphic of the integrated moisture content of the atmosphere tomorrow at 4 PM. A narrow plume of moisture headed towards us...a.k.a. an atmospheric river. But more on that some other time.

Wet and Warm

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This figure shows you the last day's precipitation using a new technology calibrating the local weather radars with rain gauges at the surface. Over central and southern Puget Sound a number of areas got 1-1.5 inches and everyone had at least a half-inch. Minor urban and road flooding has occurred throughout the region. This is certainly more than last night's computer models were showing (see the graphic with yesterdays 24-h forecast ending 4 PM today). The rain shadow in the lee of the Olympics was in full force and very heavy rain--reaching 3-5 inches were observed on the NW side of the Olympics.

Because we don't a have a coastal radar we can't see where the rain was heaviest...probably 5-7 inches on the windward (SW) side of the Olympics. The result will be flooding on several Olympic Rivers. The mountains of Vancouver Island received similar heavy amounts.

But the other side of this event was the warmth. Take a look at the latest Seattle Tacoma Airport 2-week plot. The minimum temperature last night was higher than the normal MAXIMUM. But the craziest temperatures occurred around 2 AM last night when temperatures at Bellingham and some neighboring site surges into the lower 60s (see plot). The reason: a push of SE flow off the Cascades and Chuckanut mountains, with descending flow causing compressional warming.

And the warmth is back tonight! Ten Mile AgWeatherNet site (4 mi NNE of KBLI) got to 65F this evening at 6:30 PM

We are now stuck in a warm, wet pattern because the upper level configuration has shifted eastward. The ridge aloft has pushed inland, leaving us open to warm, moist southwesterly flow. (see graphic). The east will now starting warming up as the cold air source of northern Canada will not longer supply the eastern half of the U.S. Southern Florida will be back in the 60s tomorrow and 70s on Thursday.

The next 48 hr will bring more rain to the region, with a major break on Thursday.

It's STILL Warmer In Seattle Than Miami!

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Update Sunday Evening!!

It was MUCH warmer today in Seattle than Miami, AGAIN
High Temperatures Today:
Seattle: 55F, Miami 48F

And now the Seattle Visitor's Bureau is featuring the fact that we have better weather than Miami:

Another update issue..a front is moving in tonight and strong winds have picked up over NW Washington (our classic southeasterlies) and along the NW coast. The next day or two will bring heavy rain to the Olympics and far N. Cascades...much lighter to the south.

Recent Conditions in Florida

Hard to believe but true!
Reality stranger than fiction!

MIAMI is WAY colder than SEATTLE today.

It is not even close.

Take a look at the proof: below I attached the recent weather records from Seattle Tacoma Airport and Miami.



In Seattle we had partial SUN and temperatures rising into the mid-50s. Light winds. Beautiful day to be outside.

Miami....cold (40s and rain) much of the day and now it is down to 38F--much colder than we are. And get this....snow flurries were reported in N. Miami with ice pellets in Palm Beach.

Pythons are dying in the Everglades, lizards are falling off trees, and fish are floating to the surface, stunned by the change in temperature.

And the warmth is not going to end for us. The latest forecasts indicate warm and dry tomorrow for western WA. And then warm, with some rain, the rest of the week for the entire region. The heaviest rain will be in BC, with the Olympics and northern Cascades getting a piece of it. No lizards falling out of our trees! We have had morning after morning of beautiful sunrises. We have better coffee. Good reasons to live in Seattle and not in cold, snowy Florida.

Hurricane in the Columbia Gorge

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Reporters are falling like flies in the Columbia Gorge today!

For the last few days, strong easterly winds have hit the Columbia Gorge, the Bellingham area, the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, and some western Cascade foothills towns (such as North Bend and Enumclaw). And in fact, there is some amusing footage of a TV reporter being blown away today by "100 mile per hour" winds on Crown Point overlooking the Gorge (check it out at http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Freezing-rain-possible-in-Gorge-Thursday-night-80931217.html)

Here is another version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVeB6jFU3s4

The wind action of the past few days has been caused by a large pressure difference across the Cascades, a difference that has some connection with the frigid, cold air in the eastern half of the U.S.

In my last blog I talked about mild conditions the past week, but the warmth has been mainly expressed west of the Cascades. Take a look at the pressure and temperatures over the NW U.S. at 10 AM this morning (graphic). Very, very cold air is found east of the crest of the Rockies in Montana and the high plains. The Rockies blocks the the coldest air and any air that gets over is warmed as it sinks into eastern Washington. Eastern Washington has intermediate cold air and the Cascades blocks most of that from getting over into western Washington and Oregon. So the west has a very effective "double defense" against the cold of the interior of the continent. If only the Seahawks had as good a defense!

Cold air is relatively dense, so the coldest areas tend to have the highest pressure...and that is apparent on the chart. And the crest of mountains, which separate regions of very different temperatures, are also re locations of big pressure changes. And pressure changes drive winds (my book has a lot more on all of this if you are interested in learning more). But to get strong winds you need one more ingredient...gaps in the terrain to let the air through!

I have also included a higher-resolution version of the pressure/temperature chart for your amusement (see graphic). Today the pressure difference across the Cascades grew very, very large and the winds responded where there were gaps or weakeness for the air to move through.

The most profound gap is the Columbia Gorge...the only near-sea-level gap across the Cascades. Winds accelerated in the Gorge, with the strongest winds on the west side (NOT IN THE NARROWEST PORTION AS INCORRECTLY NOTED IN MANY TEXTBOOKS!!). Steady winds of 20-35 mph, with gusts to 50-60 mph were observed and in a few favored locations on bluffs and buildings (like Crown Point) the winds were even stronger (thus the buffeted reporter).

Strong winds also pushed through the Fraser River gap into Bellingham and through the Stampede Gap of the central Cascades, bringing strong downslope/gap winds into North Bend, Issaquah, Enumclaw and the like.

Want to see some amazing winds in the gorge? Here are some examples at Corbett, Oregon and Prindle, WA. Wow.



However, this is all going to end. The cold air is moving out of eastern Washington, the pressure differences are relaxing, and warm air is spreading over the entire NW. This change is associated with the eastward movement of the large-scale ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather for over a week. But with this warm air will come something else...rain. Wet will return. And there is no end in sight to above normal temperatures for us.


PS: For those of you who are interested in math education, I have updated the math blog of two days ago with a link to a similar math assessment given by a professor in the department of Earth and Space Studies at the UW (another 200 students). Nearly identical results unfortunately.

Northwest Heat Wave and Cold Waves Back East

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I am thinking of getting a palm tree for my house too!

I don't think it has escaped anyone's notice that is has been quite warm during the past four days...substantially above normal. Take a look at the temperatures since 25 December in the plot below for Seattle-Tacoma Airport. The time is in GMT (8hr later than PST) and the average daily highs and lows are shown by the red and blue lines. Since the new year began, our temps have been way above normal...with maximums getting near fifty and lows around 45. The average temps for this period are a high of 45 and a low of 36F. Our lows the last few days have generally been greater than the normal HIGHS. I am sweating just thinking about it. March temps in January.


Now at the same time the central and eastern U.S. is shivering under bitter cold temps--the media is full of cold wave and snowstorm coverage. Take a look at the max temps today across the U.S. in the graphic below. The west was balmy...50s in the NW to 70s in southern CA. The east coast was a different story..highest in the 20s and 30s in the NE and only in the very low 60s in southern FL. In the upper Midwest temps only rose into the single digits and teens.


This kind of pattern in which the west and east coasts are out of phase are not unusual at all. But why? The answer lies in the large scale circulation of the atmosphere ... something that is best seen aloft. The figure below shows conditions aloft at around half the pressure of the surface...this is a 500 millibar map (millibar is a unit of pressure) and it represents the height of this pressure above sea level. This pressure level is roughly at around 18,000 ft. The lines give you the height of this pressure surface above sea level. Where the heights are high there is a ridge, and where low, a trough. Winds tend to follow these lines with high heights to the right.
You will notice there is a ridge along the west coast and a broad trough over the eastern half of the country. Think of a rope held between two people...if one shakes it back and forth there is a wave-like pattern, with a ridge next to a trough. Generally, the nature of the flow is such that if we have a ridge they have a trough and vice versa..not always, but much of the time. On the western side of the trough the winds are blowing from the southwest and thus bring warm air northward, so the ridge tends to be warm. But on the back side of the ridge and western side of the trough the winds are from the north...bringing cold air southward, in this case into the eastern half of the U.S. We have been locked in this pattern for about a week...and with some minor changes it appears to be with us for a while.

And if you like warm here is more good news! The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is going for a warmer than normal conditions for the remainder of the winter. Check out their graphic:
The major basis for this is the current El Nino..which brings warmer than normal temps to the northern tier of states..generally after Jan 1.

Perhaps we will have some early blossoms this year as a result of all this warmth...but I will leave that to the horticultural experts. I had a few plants savaged due to the cold wave in December, so hopefully we are finished with that!

Finally, the big weather of the meeting of the year is coming up...the Northwest Weather Workshop on March 5-6 in Seattle. This is where meteorologists and weather enthusiasts get together to talk about the weather of our region. So any of you could come. Information about the meeting, registration, fees, food, etc is found at:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/pnww/

Any of you in the vineyard business or agricultural pursuits and might be interested in giving a talk on how weather affects you....let me know. We are thinking of a having a session on such matters.

How Good Are UW Students in Math?

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UPDATE: A similar exam was given in another big lecture class: Earth and Space Sciences 102. Here is the exam and results: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/ESS%20102%20Math%20Assessment%20Solutions-1.pdf Unfortunately, there were very similar results, with poor performance on many questions. Thanks to James Prager of ESS for sharing the exam with us. This is a big problem faced by all professors at the UW.


As many of you know, I have a strong interest in K-12 math education, motivated by the declining math skills of entering UW freshmen and the poor math educations given to my own children. Last quarter I taught Atmospheric Sciences 101, a large lecture class with a mix of students, and gave them a math diagnostic test as I have done in the past.

The results were stunning, in a very depressing way. This was an easy test, including elementary and middle school math problems. And these are students attending a science class at the State's flagship university--these should be the creme of the crop of our high school graduates with high GPAs. And yet most of them can't do essential basic math--operations needed for even the most essential problem solving.

A copy of the graded exam is below (click to enlarge) and a link to a pdf version is at:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/101Math2009A1.pdf

If you want a blank version to give your kids and friends, it is at:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/UWMathTest.pdf

Consider these embarrassing statistics from the exam:

The overall grade was 58%

43% did not know the formula for the area of a circle
86% could not do a simple algebra problem (problem 4b)
75% could not do a simple scientific notation problem (1e)
52% could not deal with a negative exponent (2 to the -2)
43% could not do simple long division problem with no remainder!
47% did not know what a cosine was.

I could go on, but you get the message. If many of our state's best students are mathematically illiterate, as shown by this exam, can you imagine what is happening to the others--those going to community college or no college at all?

Quite simply, we are failing our children and crippling their ability to participate in an increasingly mathematical world. I have even heard from carpenters complaining they are finding it difficult to hire new apprentices that can do the calculations needed to build a house. When I buy something, cashiers have difficulty making change. During the past several years professors such as myself have seen a progressive decline in math skills. Math remediation rates have soared at community colleges to the 50% level. The math tutoring industry has exploded (over 300% in the past decade and a half). Foreign nationals are filling our technical positions here in the U.S. We are in deep trouble. And it has to be fixed or our state and nation will slip into second class status.

This is a national problem--WA state is not the only place where math ability has floundered. But I am amazed how major foundations (e.g., the Gates Foundation) and big-time politicians are so clueless about what is going on, and how quickly major progress could be made.

Now why have things gotten so bad and what can we do about it? As in any disaster the causes are multiple. And let me say at the outset, it can be fixed. A lot can be done quickly with only modest resources.

One problem is curriculum and textbooks. Starting in the mid-90s colleges of education and "curriculum specialists" in districts become enamored with a new way of teaching math--called reform or discovery math. Instead of teaching the basics --followed by practice to mastery, the idea was that students could only learn math they "discovered" themselves. Working on problem sets was considered "drill and kill." Direct instruction by teachers and equations in books were out. Long division was out. Integrated math books where all topics were swirled together were in. Group learning and playing with objects (manipulatives) were in. Describing one's through process was considered more important than getting the right answer. Most of this proved to be a disaster, but those pushing it--professors in education schools and district curriculum types--were believers, even though there was no empirical proof that it worked. Many felt that the new reform math could serve social and political goals--helping the disadvantaged or those that traditionally could not "get" math. (as if minority groups were not capable of learning the same math as the privileged!) And it didn't work, as the exam below shows. (Ironically, their new approach hurt the disadvantaged more than others who could afford tutoring and private schools.)

Another problem is that many teachers are ill-prepared by colleges of education to teach math. Many elementary schools teachers have weak math knowledge and large numbers of middle school and high school math teachers do not have degrees in math or technical subjects. And of course the ill-founded reform and discovery math approaches are pushed into their heads. Now these weak teachers could function marginally if they had good textbooks and curriculum, but they don't. And the curriculum and books are so poor that students can't take them home to learn the material on their own or enjoy the assistance of their parents. It would be hard to design a worse system.

And, of course, there are a host of other problems--too much video games and Facebook at home--as an example. A lack of a sense of student responsibility by some. An out of control "self esteem" movement among the education community and some parenting experts. Larger class sizes don't help (although Asian countries seem to be able to do a good job with big classes) And more.

Now, all this can be fixed...some of it very quickly. But before I talk about that I should acknowledge some positive changes going on right now.

Terry Bergeson, an enthusiastic support of reform math and the ill-fated (and poorly constructed) math WASL, was voted out of office (Superintendent of Public Instruction). Randy Dorn, who does not share her ideological baggage, was voted in, and has already made some positive changes. Recently, his office made a major public announcement saying that the standard algorithms for addition, multiplication, subtraction, and division WILL be required and tested on the new exam his office is creating. (It shows you have far we have gone into the dumps when something like this is a major advance!) He has also recommended some excellent textbooks on the elementary and high school levels for acquisition by state districts. And he has begun to restrain the antics of some holdovers from the Bergeson era.

With support by the State Legislature (who got sick of Bergeson's shenanigans) and the State Board of Education state math standards have been enhanced (improved, but still not as good as they should be) . And several districts, like Shoreline and Northshore, are moving to excellent curricula and textbooks.

Importantly, parents have begun to understand how the past system has really ruined their childrens' math education.

But the battle is hardly won. Some districts are going backwards, not forwards. The Seattle Public Schools, has poor discovery math books at all levels; the Seattle School Board voted in the Discovering Math series last spring (4-3 vote), even though the State Board of Education found it "unsound." The math coordinator for the city does not have a degree in math or science and is a real discovery advocate. Recently, the Seattle Board has voted to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for tutoring from Sylvan Learning (talk about admission of failure). If your child is in this district you have a real problem in this failing district. The irony is that this district has a large proportion of minority students and they picked the worst possible curriculum for them.

But not all disaster districts are underprivileged. Take Issaquah. Issaquah has a Superintendent (Steve Rasmussen) and curriculum staff that are determined to railroad discovery math through the district. Currently, Issaquah is using one of the worst elementary school textbook series (Everyday Math) and their handpicked Math Adoption Committee has voted unanimously for the "unsound" Discovering Geometry and Algebra series. They even hired an outside contractor that supported their decision (you would not believe the reasoning. For example, Discovering Math would fit better with their current middle school math, Connected Math. So because the students are so weak for the current offerings, they need a weak math curriculum in high school!). If I was a parent in that district, I would let these people know that their ideological math decisions are simply not acceptable. High tech parents will have to pay to get their kids properly educated by Kumon or Sylvan or see them flip burgers for the imported high tech employees of the future.

Anyway, my 101 exam and other assessments given throughout the U.S. has shown that our nation and state have been running an unfortunate experiment on our children that has failed. It will not cost much to change the curricula and standards and only a modest amount to switch out the textbooks. These change will have a major impact on our childrens' math education.

Some people (like the Seattle Times) are fixated on testing our kids with high stakes tests, but this doesn't make sense (and is even cruel) if we don't have reasonable educational material in places taught by teachers who know their material. I would offer it makes more sense to test the teacher first for a competent knowledge of math! It is a very American thing to think you can change everything with a test, when the whole foundation is rotten. Amazingly, some business groups, like the Business Roundtable, don't understand this and are fixated on the exams and not the underlying curriculum issues.

So fix the curricula and books first. Properly educate the teachers second (and allow technical people to easily get into teaching). It will be much harder to change the mindset of the education lobby and particularly schools of education and "curriculum specialists" who tend to have an ideological approach without empirical support. I am embarrassed to admit some of the worst of the worst are at the UW. But the disaster that is our schools of education or K-12 education specialists in the math dept should be reserved for a future blog.



Finally, if you are interested to learn more about this subject go to the website of a statewide group interesting in fixing this situation:

www.wheresthemath.com

Rainshadow and Year in Review

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When you look at the local weather radar imagery from Camano Island (like above), one is struck by the frequency and importance of rainshadowing in the lee of the Olympics and mountains of Vancouver Island. Tonight the winds are moist and from the southwest approaching the Olympics and thus the rainshadow...where air is sinking down the slopes of the barrier...is on the NE side. So if you are on northern Whidbey Island or the NE side of the Olympic Peninsula you are really dry right now, while moderate rain is falling a dozen or so miles away. Wait till we have the new coastal radar--we will really be able to see the whole picture!

By the way, there is plenty of misinformation floating about regarding rainshadows....it is the sinking that does it, not the loss of moisture on the windward side. I spend a lot of time on rainshadow effects in my book for a good reason...we live in rainshadow country!

The image below shows the temperature at Sea-Tac Airport and normal highs and lows for the past four weeks. Today was substantially warmer than normal in the strong SW flow. The cold spell of early December is evident, followed by above normal temps of mid-December. December turned out to be substantially drier than normal at Sea-Tac: 2.75 inches, 2.87 inches below normal. The month ended up colder than normal due to the frigid period early in the month...the mean was roughly 3F below normal.

The dry conditions are having a significant influence on the snowpack, which is now generally 75-85% of normal. And let be honest...being a moderate El Nino year I find it hard to optimistic about mountain snows...and the chances of lowland snow are far less than normal.

My colleagues at the National Weather Service have put together a nice end of year view of 2009 weather events. If you are interested, check it out at:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=sew&sid=SEW&pil=PNS
 
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