The latest model runs have come in and the first major coastal wind event looks like it will hit southern Oregon/N. CA during the middle to late afternoon on Sunday (see graphic below of sea level pressure and wind speed at 4 PM Sunday. These are sustained winds (averaged over roughly 10 minutes)...not gusts, which can be considerably higher. The reds are sustained winds of 50 kts (hurricane strength winds are 64 kts or more). Certainly, the gusts will make that. These strong winds are associated with a tight low that moves up the coast, while weakening. By 4 AM the low and strong winds will reach Washington (see other graphic).
The Medford NWS folks have put out this statement:
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WEST OF THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW...SOUTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NEAR WARNING LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH...HIGHEST
ALONG THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY.
COAST.
There are still at number of additional strong systems later in the week and
uncertainty is considerable.
