Is it possible that weather could influence the outcome of Tuesday's midterm election? If so, can we make any predictions based on current weather forecasts?The general wisdom is that bad weather favors the Republicans since supposedly some key Democratic voting blocks (e.g., the elderly) are more weather sensitive than the rest of the population....
Less Flooding Risks
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The trend of the computer models is to produce less rain over the Olympics and North Cascades--mainly due to the fact that the band of strong, moist flow will be moving through the area more quickly than forecast a few days ago. Here is the latest computer model forecast (24h precipitation ending 5 AM on Tuesday)--2 to 5 inches over the Olympics....
Update
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The heavy rains are still on track for Monday and early Tuesday for the Olympics and North Cascades, although the current runs are not quite as extreme.The intense storm in the Gulf of Alaska is now forming--here is the wind field over the Pacific for 11 PM tomorrow. Just amazing. The white areas are higher than 55 kts sustained winds....essentially...
Major Rain and Flooding Event Approaching
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Well, I was having some fun in my last blog, but this one will be serious. The reason? A major rain and potential flooding event may be coming, one that could impact some people's lives. But some uncertainty remains, and I will try to be upfront with that as well.During the next few days a disturbance off of Asia (Typhoon Chaba) will move northward,...
Media claims are wrong. WE have the record storms!
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In this fight, we have right on our sideThere has been a lot of media attention regarding the storm in the Midwest with claims it was the strongest (lowest pressure) non-tropical storm in U.S history. DON'T BELIEVE IT FOR A MOMENT. This is classic eastern U.S. media myopia....we have had the deepest and most violent storms!So here is the story. The...
TV Special On Doppler Radar and AMS Meeting
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Two things to mention and then some weather.Tomorrow night (Tuesday) KIRO TV (channel 7) at 7 PM will broadcast a special titled "Winter's Warning" that will talk about the upcoming La Nina winter and more importantly will tell you about the new coastal radar. They went to Oklahoma to see an operational radar like the one we will get...with the special...
Giant Waves
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This is really turning into an extraordinary event. I can't remember over many years seeing this situation...a very deep system, slowly dying, that is sitting right off our coast for days. The models are having a very hard time with this storm as well.Today a batch of very unstable air rotated around the low, bring lines of strong convection with...
The Storm
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Its here.... A beautiful looking storm in the infrared and water vapor satellite imagery (first and second images below). The dark color in the water vapor satellite imagery indicates dry air descending into the low, a sign of strength.Here is a the short-term forecast for 11 PM tonight...an impressive 966 mb low! There are a lot of isobars and...
Meteorological Earmarks and the U.S. Senate Race in Washington
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There has been a lot of talk in the U.S. Senate race in Washington State about earmarks, and I thought I might give my perspective based on some actual experience with them.Patty Murray (Democrat)If you had asked me a few years, I would have been against them, but my mind has changed, based partly on my experience with the coastal radar. I now believe...
Major Coastal Storm and Big Waves
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It is become increasingly clear that our offshore waters will be hit by a very powerful low pressure center (what we call and extratropical cyclone in the business). The result will be hurricane-force gusts over the eastern Pacific and 30-40 ft waves striking our coastline. The interior should be generally spared with one exception: Northwest Washington...
I don't believe anything yet...but
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I don't want to get anyone excited.And because of Typhoon Megi there is a loss of predictability over the Pacific. So the chances are it won't happen.But with all of that said...look at the latest forecast for Sunday morning at 8 AM!An extraordinarily deep low center just off Vancouver Island. 964 mb! And each model run brings the storm closer!And...
Want Warmth? Take a Hike!
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Last night was a classic fall example of the development of a lower atmosphere inversion (temperature increasing with height). Here are the temperatures above Seattle during the past six hours (from the Seattle profiler at Sand Point, heights are in meters, temperature in C). BIG INVERSION! Temperatures increase by rougly 10 C (19F) between the...
Major Change to Stormy Conditions Ahead
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I generally like to wait until I am sure about things before advertising a major change and now I am. The models are all going for a major shift to stormy and wet weather this weekend.But don't worry...we have a few more days of sun and warmth ahead!Three days--with sunny afternoons, highs in the lower 60s, and dry...but with fog in the morning. ...
