You see the increasing clouds aloft...these are associated with an approaching warm front aloft...one associated with a vigorous offshore system (see sat pic). But that system..and its strong winds will not make landfall in the NW and strong winds will not reach our interior. With low pressure offshore and high pressure inland, strong offshore...
Good News
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Some news:(1) The Camano radar was fixed ...but unfortunately broke down again. Lets face it, this radar really doesn't break down very much..considering the constant rotation and movement of the antenna and the high-powered electronics.(2) I had a nice talk with METRO technical and management people today. They promised that they are going to replace the servers of the bus track information system and this problem, which inconveniences hundreds or thousands of us unnecessarily.(3) I learned yesterday, that partial support for a new coastal radar is in the 2009 Omnibus legislation (that has yet to pass). Thanks...
Snow Blindness
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It is really frustrating to be meteorologically blind--with the NWS radar covering western WA out of commission. It makes it hard to understand what is happening and to diagnose the situation--something those living on the coast have to deal with all the time.There was quite a bit of snow yesterday and last night, depending on where you are, and the...
Update
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The worst is probably over now for most..particularly those living near Bellingham. The air is now cold enough for snow throughout the region (see temps from profiler over Seattle). The band I was worried about it my afternoon note has moved through central and northwest Washington and we have a few showers remaining...but nothing serious. The latest...
Snow in Bellingham and Elsewhere
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The cold front has moved through and cooler air is now spreading over western Washington. Northeasterly winds have pushed through the Fraser River Valley and associated cooler, drier air has made its way into Bellingham and vicinity. Cold enough that snow is occurring at Bellingham Airport. (Look at the attached figure showing observations at Bellingham..time...
Uncertain Snow in Seattle
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Not an easy forecast. A cold front will move through tomorrow...bringing rain showers with its passage. Temperatures will cool behind it, and by later tomorrow evening the air mass will be cold enough for lowland snow, particularly where there is significant precipitation . The problem is that Puget Sound will be at least partially rain shadowed (or snow shadowed in this case). There doesn't seem to be much evidence of a convergence zone developing over the central Sound. Another issue is that there really won't be that much precipitation in the cold NW flow.Clearly, there will be far higher chances of snow...
More SNOW?!&%$
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There has been some hyping of wind in some media outlets...it will get breezy as low pressure moves north of us this afternoon...perhaps 15-20 mph sustained for a few hours in well-exposed locations, but no windstorm. The showers we have been getting has produced significant snow in the mountains (see image), and this will continue the remainder of...
The Coastal Radar
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The KIRO newspecial tonight hit the radar issue hard. It really is time we get this done. Virtually all sectors of the community agree..from the environmentalists, to the timber industry, to fishers, to the Port of Gray's harbor, to meteorologists, and almost everyone in between. The expense, although significant--4-10 million--is dwarfed by the costs of a single major storm or the savings--both in safety and economic--that the radar would allow. This is key infrastructure and it is shovel ready. NOAA is being given $600 million for infrastructure enhancements...surely this project deserves support from that....
Coming in faster
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The band of precipitation is moving through now...and should be through by dinner time for most of the lowlands. About 3-6h faster than the model's indicated yesterday. Such timing errors are not unusual, unfortunately. Lack of detailed observations offshore is a major contributor to these errors. Another reason why we need a coastal rad...
Tomorrow
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Well, it looks like we will have a break in the weather tomorrow morning and afternoon, but later in the day the next system will start moving in (see the satellite picture). You see that swirling cloud mass off of California? That's it. I show these picture a lot..so a word of explanation. This is an infrared satellite image taken by a geostationary...
A break
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It is nearly impossible to time accurately the passage of rainfall bands accurately the day before..so it is time for what we call a "nowcast" in the business. A band of precipitation is now moving through the central sound (see satellite and radar imagery at about 9 AM). The implication...there should be a major break this morning and early afternoon...so...
Uncertainty II
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Several of you have asked about forecast uncertainty...something I started to discuss yesterday.The truth is that all forecasts are uncertain. That uncertainty increases in time. The amount of uncertainty varies by weather situation. Sometimes even a 3-4 day forecast is highly uncertain (like yesterday),while other times there is substantial forecast...
Uncertainty
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I often warn about taking long-range forecasts (beyond 5 days) too seriously...particularly when we talk about snow. Today is a good example where even 3 day forecasts are very, very uncertain. Attached are the 500 mb upper level charts for 3 days out...from the National Weather Service GFS and NAM models (the top two models used by my colleagues...
Weather Special on Monday Night on KIRO TV
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For all you weather lovers, KIRO will have an hour long special on Monday night on the December 2007 storm. The info link with a short clip is below. It is a bit scary...so if you are faint of heart weatherwise, don't view it...cliffhttp://www.kirotv.com/station/18725264/detail.h...
Spring...and then the return of rain
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The models are all in agreement that the next three days should be mild and sunny, with some high clouds invading on late Saturday. Highs in the mid 50s will be widespread, as they were today. The sun is clearly higher in the skies and the days are perceptibly longer. The big transition is on Sunday, when the protective ridge will give way to moderate...
Finally, Spring is coming
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Most years there is a transition after Feb. 15th that makes one realize that Seattle winter is over. When thoughts trend to the garden center, rather than the ski slopes. And for us, this shift will occur on Thursday through Saturday of this week. It is clear now that with the low developing offshore, southeasterly flow will bring warm air from...
Cloudy East, Sunny West
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If you needed proof that western Washington can be sunnier than eastern Washington in the winter...today is a good example. Look at the latest satellite picture. The east side is covered in low clouds, which are pushing into the Cascade passes (sorry, lots of clouds at the ski resorts in the pass). West of the crest, there is sun in many locations...with...
When lack of weather is unusual
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We are now in the midst of a fairly unusual weather situation...an extended midwinter drought extending well over a month (see figure..red is this year, blue is climo average). And it is not over yet. But lets be clear...such droughts have occurred before and some worst then this year's. If you are really careful about picking period--mid January...
Saturday
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As you can see from the latest satellite picture, we have a mixed field of cloud and some break over the region, with a few scattered showers (see images). The real action is going into CA and in the picture you can see a well-defined cyclone, with strong fronts heading towards the northern portion of that state. Temperatures are generally in the...
The Weekend
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This is going to be a benign weekend with little weather action. We are in a pattern where the storms are deflected towards California and we get some weak cloud bands on their northern side. Today is a case in point....with the visible satellite picture showing the situation (see image). This morning the Cascades were really clear due to easterly...
The Drought
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This morning there was considerable black ice as the wet roadways froze after the skies cleared.Most of the Puget Sound lowlands and the Cascades have been in a virtual drought the past month, as most of you are are. The precipitation trace at Sea-Tac shows the story (see image). The precipitation of the last day didn't change the story much...except...
Showtime
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The major act of this play is now beginning. So far the models have done a splendid job. As predicted southeasterly flow developed, with downslope on the western slopes of the Cascades causing drying and upslope on the SW of Olympics forcing some moderate to heavy snow. Look at the radar...you can see the large gradient of precipitation and the...
Snow
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We are going to see snow today in the western Washington lowlands. The Pacific warm front is now moving in and precipitation is now entering the western Puget Sound lowlands (see radar). Central and north coast stations are now reporting snow as is Shelton. The air mass in place is cold enough to support snow, as indicated by the latest profiler...
Tomorrow's Snow
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The convergence zone is still evident at 8 PM, but appears to be weakening. It should fade out this evening. The latest winds really show the convergence...take a look at the dense winds over the Sound from the Washington State Ferries....very dramatic difference in direction over the waters between the Vashon Is and Bainbridge ferries.The offshore...
7 PM Update
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As per the earlier forecast, a new Puget Sound convergence zone has formed over north Seattle. There are heavy showers, some with small hail pellets, and even some lightning (my dog is in hiding now). The radar shows this well (image) as does the surface chart (image). Temperatures are a little warm for snow in most locations, but in the most intense...
