New Year's is rapidly approaching and so is a strong warm front (see satellite image above).Rain has now reached the south Sound and you can expect a relatively wet day. For those thinking of celebrating outside I have good news....most of the rain should be through by 10 PM...and with with warmer air and scattered showers, it won't be too bad to...
A Wet New Year's Eve--and more
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And I am not talking about liquid refreshments. After a dry, and sometimes sunny period, we are about to see some serious rain again. Been almost a week.Tonight we are getting some showers from a very weak front that is moving through (see radar image). And tomorrow there will be some scattered showers and even some sunbreaks--temps climbing into...
Sky Islands
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I was looking for an inexpensive vacation last week that offered lots of sun and interesting weather features--well I found one --Tucson, Arizona.Perhaps my most interesting weather experience was ascending one of the "sky islands" - the Santa Catalina Mountains northeast of Tucson. Starting around 2500 ft in the Tucson metro area, one can take the...
Boring Weather
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Picture by Reid Wolcott of low clouds over the Puget Sound lowlands, taken from Newcastle Golf CourseHow many ways can a meteorologists spell "Boring"? For the past several days we have been stuck in the classic mid-winter ridge pattern, when high pressure over the region produces dry, low wind conditions. The problem is that such conditions produce...
Climate Musings
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There were quite few comments on my Climategate post last week. There was a bit more I wanted to say and will do so here.My bottom line message was that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) IS a major problem, but one that has received considerable hype from both "sides." One side is convinced, for good reason, that AGW is a real problem, but is not afraid to dramatize the threat a bit or to see the "other side" in threatening terms. The other believes the whole business is some kind of false science inspired by some left wind conspiracy. Or they repeat ideas that don't hold water under examination: e.g., that...
Coastal Storms
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Here is the six hour forecast valid 10 PM tonight (Saturday) with sea level pressure (the solid lines) and precipitation. Two coasts, two storms. For us, a warm front is now moving through the region, and you can see the band of precipitation associated with it on a recent radar image (graphic). Temps will warm up as the warm front pushes north....
The Coastal Radar is Real!
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Today, President Obama signed the 2010 Appropriation Bill with 7 million dollars for a coastal radar for the central Washington Coast. That plus the funds already made available in the stimulus funding earlier this year (2 million dollars) will completely fund all costs for purchasing and installing a high-powered, state-of-the-art radar that will...
Climategate
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Several of you have asked me during the past few weeks to comment on Climategate--the emails stolen from the University of East Anglia dealing with global warming issues. I will do so here, but I want to go beyond that situation to some of my own personal observations derived my own experiences doing climate-related research.Let me start with my bottom line points:Were some of the climategate emails inappropriate? YesHave some scientists exaggerated the implications of human caused global warming? Yes.Are many global warming deniers unreasonable and expressing opinions that are not based in facts or rational thought?...
Snow and Ice Pellets over NW Washington
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It is snowing in Eastsound on Orcas now and ice pellets are raining on Bellingham. On the other hand, for the rest of us there is moderate rain and rapidly warming temps.Check out the latest radar...you haven't seen wet like that in a while.And here are the latest surface obs. The approaching low is sucking air out of the Fraser River Gap with cool...
snow event ending
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Most of this "snow event" is over folks, except for some moderate snow showers north of Everett for convection elements moving through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Sorry to all snow lovers. Next fun..the warm front tomorrow. The main snow threat for that will be south and southeast of the Olympics and near Bellingham..before it turns to rain they could get a few inches. And then plenty of snow in the mountains...skiers will be hap...
Not Much Snow Yet in Central Sound--Snow Showers to N and S
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Bellingham this morningOlympia 4PMWe had a bit of light snow around the region, mostly flurries, although Bellingham and Olympia had enough to whiten things up (image)As the radar shows, central Puget Sound is rainshadowed by the Olympics, which is what you expect under this situation (winds aloft are westerly and northwesterly). The upward motion...
A More Detailed View
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This morning's run is now in. Today will be snow free for most of western WA...only the Portland suburbs could see a few snow showers and some freezing rain.The new model runs are somewhat more threatening for the Seattle metro area. The front associated with the upper shortwave (see figure) will come in mid to late afternoon. It is producing more...
Hype is Back!
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I just finished watching part of the 11 PM broadcast of a local TV station. Pushing snow way too much. And then they show the typical snow scare sequence:1. The ominous warning2. The snow plows gassing up3. The big pile of salt and sand4. The supermarket with people rushing to stock up5. The tire store with people desperately trying to get snow tires.Perhaps they film this once and reuse it each storm.The new models are in and are consistent with the last runs.Portland and vicinity will probably get up to an inch or two of snow on Saturday.Seattle will get nothing tomorrow.Sunday is the day. A trough is coming...but...
Quick Update
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Latest models are in. Some of you will see snow. But no big snowstorm that will last for days.The first with snow will be the northern Willamette Valley and Portland environs, which should catch some light snow from precipitation moving up from the south. It won't get north of Centralia.Then on Sunday an upper trough will move through bringing a surge of cooler air from the north and snow showers..mainly over the northern side of the state. There will be considerable rain (snow) shadowing over the lowlands south of Seattle, but Puget Sound convergence snow and other snowbands will be found over the northern...
Steam Fog, Snow over the Weekend and Beyond
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Another really cold day, although it warmed up a bit this afternoon. The air aloft was warmed significantly--by roughly 10F over the last 24 h, and surface stations are about 2-5F warmer than yesterday at the same time.While bicycling into work this morning (it was 18F when I left my home!), I was warmed by the sight of steam fog over Lake Washington....
Snow?
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I get the feeling a lot of you want a big snowstorm. I think the Mayor and the Seattle DOT also want it, if only to prove they can get it right this time. (By the way, I have been really impressed with the proactive treatment by SDOT using brine solution on steep roadways---they are clearly trying--and it does help).Is it possible we will see snow?...
Snow?
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A lot of you are wondering about snow. I have been wondering too. The problem is that the models are not consistent for this weekend and early next week. This morning our local model forced by the GFS..the NWS's best large scale forecast model, indicated a major snowstorm late Monday. But I don't trust any of it at this point and you shouldn't either. Thursday and Friday until dinnertime looks dry for western Washington...and cold. You can bank on that.Will look at the new runs tonight and make a stab at a forecast. In any case, when you have the cold in place, things happ...
Air Quality Drops
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Tonight may end up the coldest night of the entire winter for many. Cold air has settled over the region and differences in pressure have decreased (see graphic of pressures over the region), resulting in weakening winds. Winds help to stir up the low-level atmosphere...mixing up warmer air from above the surface to the ground.Why is the air warmer...
Why no frost?
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It was quite cold this morning, with temperatures dropping to the low 20s and even teens in some western Washington locations. You don't want to know how cold it is in eastern Washington! Tonight will be even colder.Several people have asked...why was there little or no frost this morning, even though we had the coolest temps of the year so far?...
