9:30 PM update: winds are now gusting to 45 mph at Whidbey Is Naval Air Station and 64 mph at Tatoosh Island. 43 mph at Port Townsend. 53 mph at Smith Island.Attached is the latest wind forecast for 8 PM tonight...very strong winds over NW Washington. Pink indicated 40 knots of SUSTAINED WINDS. Gusts could be much higher. If you are on the...
Serious Wind
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It will be quite windy tomorrow evening...particularly over NW Washington and along the coast. The latest model run show this clearly (see graphic). Strong southeasterlies after roughly 3-4 PM building into the evening from Everett to the San Juans. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph with gusts to 50-60 mph. Batten down the hatches!And the rain will...
Warm, wet and breezy
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I am finally ready to talk about the upcoming wet weather--I had to wait until the solutions settled down. This week there were major shifts and changes in the forecasts, not only of the winds but for precipitation as well. The reason for the lack of predictability have been ETs--extratropical transitions. This is when tropical systems move northward...
The Disappearing Windstorm
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Yesterday, a few of you were noting the potential for a major windstorm later in the week, with the National Weather Service GFS (Global Forecasting System) model indicating an amazingly deep low pressure system right off our coast. The graphic (sea level pressure-solid lines) is shown above for you amusement (132 h forecast starting 5 AM Saturday)....
Nice Convergence Zone
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It is pouring outside my home now. Take a look at the radar and surface observations...a very nice convergence zone is apparent in both. But tomorrow should be dry--even with some sun. A frontal system moves in mid-day on Sunday...so have your outdoor fun (or work) tomorr...
Atmospheric River Observatories and the Green River Valley
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There is a great deal of interest and concern about flooding in the Green River valley. Before the construction of the Howard Hanson dam in 1962, that valley flooded regularly, which was of minor concern when it was predominantly agricultural. But the dam afforded protection for nearly all heavy rainfall events and allowed the development of...
Undermining Math Education in our State
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As many of you know, improving math education is of particular interest to me--particularly since I see on a daily basis the poor math skills of many entering UW students. And I was stunned by the questionable materials provided to my own children. I am active in a group called wheresthemath.com, which includes thousands of parents and educators from throughout the state trying to do something about it.Two years ago the State legislature got tired of the terrible math standards (or requirements) in our State and took authority away from Terry Bergeson, then Superintendent of Public Instruction. Ms. Bergeson was an...
Amazing Rain Intensity
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An hour ago, an amazingly intense line of thunderstorms passed through central Puget Sound. At my house there was nearly .4 inches over 15 minutes--and my gutters did not do very well with that volume of water. Take a look at the radar--you can see areas of red...those are intense rainfall areas...and one went over my house--and there wasn't any...
A very wet Saturday (and the Green River will not flood)
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The latest high resolution forecast model runs are in. As are the new ensemble predictions (running many lower-resolution versions to determine the uncertainty of the forecasts). The bottom line...it will be quite wet during the next 24-36h...including the central Puget Sound region, the Olympics, and the Cascades.Lets start with the latest satellite...
Heavy Precipitation
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Just a brief heads up about fairly heavy precipitation that will hit on Friday and Saturday. Take a look at the latest high-resolution (4 km WRF) 24h precipitation ending Friday and Saturday at 5 PM. A plume of moisture associated with a Pacific front will slowly move southward over the region. Black indicates 2-5 inches over 24h. Both the SW...
Bicycles Safety/Weather/Big Storm
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We are now entering the dark, rainy time of the year, when visibility declines and roads get wet and slippery. A much more dangerous time for those in our community who ride bikes to work or cycle for pleasure. I cycle to work each day and have been in more than a few accidents myself--including one incident when a driver deliberately ran over...
A shift to stormy conditions
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Well, it couldn't last forever. Several you have asked about a big storm in the offering. Well, there will be a big storm...but sufficiently offshore that the major winds will only strike the coast and offshore. Tomorrow--Columbus Day--will be benign, with some mixed clouds, no rain, and temps reaching the mid-50s.But on Tuesday a major low will...
Tomatoes Beware! and the Importance of 2 meters
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There was more clouds last night then originally predicted and they should hold in much of the area today. With the clouds intercepting and radiating infrared radiation back to the surface, temperatures held up overnight in the 40s over much of the area.Tonight (Sunday AM) should be different with clearing skies and unusually cool temperatures aloft...
Dust Storm Redux?
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A dry weekend is ahead, but there is some interesting meteorological action in our future. A fairly strong cold front followed by rapidly increasing pressure will push into eastern Washington tomorrow...with several pulses of cold air and high pressure over the weekend. Take a look at several forecast charts over the next few days--they show sea...
Major Duststorm and Strong Winds Hit Eastern Washington. Damaging Winds Over NW Washington
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Extraordinary winds struck eastern Washington on Sunday, with 30-40 mph winds being commonplace, with gusts reaching nearly 60 mph around Wenatchee and vicinity. The result a major duststorm that closed down I90 for a while and resulted in numerous multicar accidents, sending 11 people to the hospital. Visibilities had dropped to less than five...
The Meteorological F Word and Improving Weather
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Temperatures over the region have been generally a bit cooler than normal during the past week (see graphic) as a cold, occasionally showery, upper trough has influenced our weather. But things are going to change in a big way--towards extraordinarily fine autumn weather.The upper level weather map for later today shows the upper trough starting to...
