Right now there are some instability showers (produced by cold air over warm water) and they should move into the region...mainly south of Tacoma (see satellite image). The mountains should have a breather after the snow pounding they have "enjoyed." Both the passes have about 70 inches of snow and the snowpack in the central Cascades is getting close to normal and being way below normal for much of the fall.
So a pretty benign day.
Tonight a weak system from off the Pacific will invigorate the snow showers...but they should be light--not more than an inch or so at most. Many of you will get nothing. Below the salt criterion.
Sunday morning will be dry and cold...but a much stronger Pacific frontal system will approach later in the day. For some locations, especially above 500 ft and SE of the Olympics (e.g., Kitsap) may see several inches of snow before warming aloft turns the lowland precipitation to rain all rain. Warmer, low-level locations near the water may turn very quickly and see no accumulations.
The biggest threat next week will be heavy precipitation in the mountains and the potential for river flooding. The NWS is already talking about it. My take is that this does not look like a major pineapple express event and that rainshadowing will spare the urban areas. We should watch the flood-prone rivers though.
