Quiet Day

Well, another forecast problem. The NWS was going for rain today...and I can't figure out why. Anyway, they just shifted the forecast today to a dry one for most of region.

The late Thursday/Friday storm is still uncertain. The best model...the National Weather Service GFS (Global Forecast System) model still has it in the latest runs...but weaker. The NWS NAM model (less skillful in general) doesn't have it at all. Comparing the forecasts of major international modeling systems...there is a lot of variability...but most are going for a weaker event. In contrast, in December 2006 the various modeling systems were really locking in and showing substantial agreement this far out (roughly 66-72 hr in the future). In short, for a confident forecast I look for temporal consistency in the solution and consistency among major modeling systems.

So at this point, I would certainly back off in predicting a major event and wait until tomorrow to see if the model solutions lock on a common prediction. There is large uncertainty and the trend of even the most severe outlier (GFS) is to weaken the event.