A warm front is approaching us this morning (see satellite picture) and the radar shows the advance of the associated rain (see image). Showers will develop over Puget Sound this morning, with most of the precipitation north of Centralia. Aloft the winds will strengthen from the SW and temps will warm a bit. The rain should lessen by dinner time and then pick up this evening with the passage of the associated cold front (the back line you see in the satellite picture).
Wednesday will bring some residual showers...particular in
the mountains and Thursday should be dry. The big issue is Friday and this weekend.There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for Friday--and particularly lower elevation snow. But it is clear that the weather will turn colder over the weekend and dry out.
The computer models have not locked on to a consistent solution for Friday...something I like to see to give confidence in the forecast. Most models bring precipitation in and the mountains will receive considerable snow. The latest run of the best local model produces a strong low that moves in later in the day...giving strong winds to the coast and southern Puget Sound and no general snowstorm. Just rain. The only wrinkle would be the chance of snow in a Puget Sound convergence zone that night and Saturday morning. We are going to have to wait at least until tomorrow to make a skillful forecast for this transition.
Finally, let me say that snow prediction is the most difficult type of prediction in the region. It is hard to snow here and the flow configuration has to be just right. Furthermore, the large scale atmosphere is going through a large reconfiguration...and skill is lessened during such periods. But that is why forecasting is fun!
