WeatherFest, Money, and the Aftermath

WEATHERFEST

In a little over a week (Jan24-27th) thousands of meteorologists will arrive in Seattle, for the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (perhaps a good reason to leave town!). The meeting, located at the Washington State Convention Center in downtown Seattle, includes two dozen conferences, town meetings, and all sorts of special events. The Sunday before (January 23rd) there will be a special gathering open to the public, and specially the K-12 set and their parents: WEATHERFEST. From 12-4 PM there will be an extravaganza of activities (booths, talks, demonstrations), visits from local weather celebrities (like Jeff Renner and other TV notables), and even the launch of a weather balloon. The event is free of charge and you will go home with all sorts of freebies and souvenirs. What could be better than that? I know I am going to be there!

There is a Web site with more information on Weatherfest you can check out:

http://www.ametsoc.org/meet/annual/weatherfest.html

MONEY
As you know, this blog has been advertising free (other than for my favorite links and issues...like math education). I am thinking of changing this and I will tell you why.

As you are aware, the State budget is not good and the university and my department have experienced substantial cuts. In addition, funding for maintaining all the UW weather software, modeling, and infrastructure is declining. Agencies are cutting their support of our local forecasting effort and I am searching for a solution other than cutting the offerings back or lessening our work. I am thinking of trying the google advertising system on this blog and seeing if that could bring in enough income to help. Let me be clear, none of this funding will go to me personally--it will all go to department staff or logistical support (like hard disks when one fails). Of course, if there is a high-tech billionaire or millionaire out there who wants to help, that would be good too! But, in case there isn't, I would like to try this approach and see if it can help stabilize the situation.

Storm Aftermath

Yesterday, we tried a little experiment with nowcasting (describing what is happening now and during the next few hours) and I hoped you found it useful. I really believe that this is the missing ingredient for weather prediction. At 4 PM yesterday it was clear that rush hour would be snow free over Puget Sound and the traditional sources of information were not equipped to tell you this.

Our forecast models often have errors...like yesterday, when the snow came in a few hours later than forecast and with greater intensity than expected. But a few hours before we often know what is going to happen and this information is useful. I am was amazed that the blog had 90,000 hits during the nowcasting experiment....implying to me that you also feel it is helpful.

A good portion of my research is going in this direction now, and I am working with the city of Seattle to develop an array of nowcasting applications: like Rainwatch, WindWatch, and SnowWatch. And the advent of smartphones gives us a wonderful delivery system for nowcasts and up to the minute weather information. In fact, I am try to convince some of my ex-students to form a company to deliver weather information to smartphones in clever ways. This is the future! Imagine a smartphone app like "WeatherProtector" that knows your position and constantly monitors the weather...warning you when a shower or high winds approach. Or another one that tell you when to start your bike ride to stay completely dry on a showery day. We could do either of these and a lot more.

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10:30 PM Nowcast

Based on the reports you have provided, right now there is roughly 1-2 inches over much of the area, with substantially more over Kitsap and SE of the Olympics and less near the Cascade foothills. As shown by the radar, precipitation is still occurring over much of the region:
Well I hate to be a party pooper, but the warming is occurring aloft and the snow is fated to turn to rain. Here is the latest vertical sounding (10 PM) of temperature at Seattle. The temperature structure aloft is shown every hour (1206 is ten pm, time is in GMT)
The temperature has warmed up considerably above 800 meters (around 2500 ft). You notice that the temperature is nearly constant in the lowest portion of the atmosphere..that is not a coincidence...it is very close to 32F all the way down since the precipitation is melting as it falls.

Here are the winds in the lowest 400o meters of the atmosphere from ten pm yesterday to 10 PM today. Strong southwesterly flow is found aloft (50 kts!) and the SW flow is moving down. SW flow is warm and moist.


You get the picture...this pretty snow is not going to last...it will turn to wet snow and then rain over the next 2-6 hours over most of the lowlands, depending where you are.

The other interesting story are the winds. There is a huge pressure difference the Cascades and some locations on the east side of the Sound and in the foothills are getting 40-50 mph gusts--like North Bend, Snoqualmie Ridge, and some locations near Enumclaw.

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6 PM Nowcast

The snow is slowly moving in, but nothing much going on in the central Puget Sound yet--the commute for virtually all of you is safe.

Snow has slowly extended from the coast to Shelton and some scattered light snow showers have been reported in the south Sound. Snow has been falling for hours on the north coast across the NW Olympic Peninsula, with light snow across portions of the San Juans into Bellingham now.

Here is the radar image at 5:47 PM from RainWatch. Remember the beam is way above the surface in most places and lot of this snow is not reaching the surface, particularly on the east side of the Sound.. There is one modest band moving through the south Sound, but the stuff behind it is unremarkable. And the easterly flow off the Cascades is really attenuating the snow east of the Sound.

And the snow is running out of time as the temperatures aloft are now warming as warm Pacific air moves in. In 4-6 hours it will be too late!

We don't have a regular radar on the coast, but we do have a vertically pointing radar at Westport (part of NOAA's atmospheric river observatory). Here is the latest image. You can see the lowering cloud deck and precipitation reaching the surface....looks like more intense precipitation moving in there...which would reach Puget Sound in a few hours.

So we have an interesting tug of war over Seattle and the east side--- who will win?...the drying easterlies or the snow band coming in? The models suggest the former!

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Nowcast at 4 PM

I really wish I had the coastal radar right now, it would have been a huge help to determine exactly what is going on and what will happen over the next few hours. September we will have it.

It looks like the rush hour will NOT be seriously impacted by snow. At 4 PM, it is snowing at Quillayute and Astoria, with only very light snow flurries over some locations in western Washington interior. The snow falling out of the cloud deck is light and most of it is sublimating before it reaches the surface. Strong easterly flow is really evaporating the moisture over Seattle and eastern suburbs (see radar). This will provide considerable protection from accumulating snow.

The radar is still in clear air mode and the intensities are very light. It is not even snowing at Hoquiam....a key upwind station from Seattle. It has started to snow at Westport, so it is starting to move in slowly. No snow reports over western Washington away from the coast except for northern Orcas Is.

Bottom line: you don't have to rush anywhere if you are living in western Washington outside of the far northern sections. No imminent significant snow for next two hours in the central interior (ie Puget Sound). The satellite suggests a more intense band offshore that would come in during the evening...but can't be sure. At the same time it is warming aloft as we speak. Stay at work. Enjoy happy hour. WSDOT doesn't need to be concerned about a rush-hour mess. At this point the high-res models seem to be doing well here.

This nowcast can be interactive....if you experience significant snow, leave a brief comment.

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Snow Update

Will Try An Experiment Today--A 4 PM NOWCAST
At 4 PM I will do a nowcast on this blog...describe what is happening at that time and what is expected over the next few hours.

Perhaps can help you decide whether to go home early or cancel that evening event. But my real reason is that I think that the missing ingredient in forecasting today is very frequent local updates.



New runs are in. The latest high-resolution run shows light snow hitting Seattle between 5 and 6 PM and perhaps could hold out until 10 PM before it turns to rain. Could be some freezing rain at the tail end.

Here is some graphics I have never shown...model prediction of temperature and snow at 1000 ft. The red lines are snow mixing ratio at 1000 ft (related to snow intensity). The colors indicate temperature (red...too warm for snow, etc). Showing 1000 ft because it takes about that distance for snow to melt. If no snow at 1000 ft, there wont be anything at sea level. Click on them for bigger image.

Here is 5 PM. Puget Sound clear--snow coming into coast.


7 PM. Snow over Seattle and west. Much less snow east of city and south (easterly winds are bad for snow on east side)


9 PM: Still some snow from Seattle north and west. Upslope flow is giving much more snow SE of the Olympics.


Midnight...its over folks...except for the far north. RAIN and warm.

NW Washington and the Kitsap will get hit much harder than Puget Sound country. Could the timing be off an hour or so? You bet. Could the distribution be slightly different? Sure. But I bet these graphics provide the key story plots

And we can watch the winds and temperature change aloft in real-time using the Sand Point Profiler....

here is the latest plot (time on x axis, height in meters on y):Red lines are temperature and wind barbs in blue. Good easterly flow and temps just below freezing (you have to add one to these temperatures, which are in degrees centigrade for reasons I don't want to get into).
You can view this in real time at:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?profiler

And check the latest weather radar imagery..you will see everything unfold. Or keep your eyes on Seattle RainWatch (will be SnowWatch tonight!):

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/SPU/

So bottom line: if you are in Seattle and you get home by 4 PM you will have no problem. By 5-6 light snow should hit. Over by midnight, probably sooner. Tomorrow's commute will be fine.

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Brief Snow, Then Rain and Wind

It is clear now what is about to happen. Yes, there are always uncertainties, but they are much, much smaller than a few days ago. How do I know that? Of course, forecast errors decline as the verification time comes closer, but there are other reasons:

(1) Ensemble of predictions starting with different initializations (different starting points from major operational centers around the world) are producing similar forecasts (that was not true over the weekend).

(2) The forecasts from the National Weather Service models have settled down and are not changing much, cycle to cycle. There is only a slight drift north with the latest run (which makes it warmer by the way)

(3) A comparison of satellite imagery and observations with a model short-term (3-h) forecast looks good. No major errors in initialization or features. Here is the graphic for 7 PM (yellow are 3-h forecast pressures):


Don't be deceived, the low pressure center is NOT in the middle of the swirling clouds.

I think we have a solid forecast to work with, based on all the tools of the trade.
So, what will happen?

Today we had air that was just cool enough for snow over us and there was some light snow in a few showers that moved through this morning. No big deal.

Tomorrow the low will move northward towards Vancouver Island, with the attendant warm front moving up the coast with it. Here is the forecast surface chart at 7 PM:

Warm air is already sneaking in (greens and yellows) at this time . And there is another problem for snow lovers on the east side of Puget Sound and Seattle--easterly downslope flow off the Cascades--the snoweater! Here are the winds for 7 PM tomorrow:

See the easterly flow...this is bad news for snow..the descending air dries and warms. With low pressure offshore flow through the Fraser, relatively weak to start with, is moving our the Strait. Strong winds over the Pacific!

As the low and front reach us and move northward, there will only be a short period of possible snow. Cold air will be in place, and initially evaporation and melting of the falling precipitation will help keep it cool enough to snow. But eventually the profound warming aloft will win.

Here is the forecast 3-h snow at 7 PM. Some light snow along the north coast and NW Washington as well as the Kitsap region SE of the Olympics. Seattle will see a dusting. Certainly possible to be as high as 1 inch or two. And that of course would be slippery.


Next, take a look at the surface chart at 4 AM. The low is making landfall on N. Vancouver Island and warm air has spread across western Washington. No more snow. Rain will pick up and so will the winds. The winds will strength further as the low loves north of us--20-30 mph gusts are reasonable over central Puget Sound.

Here is the 24-h snowfall ending 4 AM Wednesday. Lots of snow over the N. Cascades and the Olympics. NW Washington gets a few inches, but not much south of Everett over the lowlands. Sorry.

Freezing levels will rise quickly and temperatures in the lowlands will return to the 40s. The Olympics and Cascades will get crushed with snow...Mt. Baker could easily get THREE feet. And two other Pacific lows are lined up to follow this one.

Finally, I really appreciate all the feedback today on the value of long-term forecasts. I agree that it is important for people to have a "heads up" on potential high-impact events, but my profession needs to give better quantitative guidance on the uncertainty of the forecasts. We are working on it and some tools already exist.

PS: The National Weather Service is going for a bigger event tomorrow: 1-3 inches over the lowlands, which would melt during the AM hours. This is certainly within the range of possibility, although it looks high to me. So there is a range of possibilities from nothing to a few inches in Seattle. Everyone agrees it will be warm and raining by daybreak. Precipitation will hit around the commute home tomorrow. Anyway, lets see how things look tomorrow AM. Want to be sure about the situation?....leave work or school by 4 PM!

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Major Lowland Snowstorm Out, Windstorm-Heavy Rain In

I have to be brief here (I do have a job at the UW!), so a few comments based on the latest runs.

Very little chance of a major lowland snow.

A very good chance of heavy rain and wind.

There will be snow during the initial hours of the event, but will rapidly turning to rain.

Most probable evolution. As the system approach later tomorrow, some locations will see light snow, possibly a few inches, after rush hour. (This times very well for local DOT departments).

Overnight will turn to rain and temps will warm. Wednesday we will see moderate rain over the lowlands and the development of strong winds. VERY strong winds along the coast and over NW Washington. Very heavy snow in the mountains (a few feet!).

Philosophical question for a future blog: with all the uncertainty at 4-7 days out, is my field doing the population a service telling them what might happen?

PS: There are some light snowshowers scattered around today...nothing significant will fall.

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Chances of Major Snowstorm Fading

One of the most difficult things about being a forecaster is maintaining objectivity.

Many of us got into the field because of a major storm event or a love of extreme weather. Like big snowstorms. And there is a tendency to forecast what you yearn for. Yes, we have our fancy models that provide objective guidance. But many times they disagree or have known biases, leaving some room for "professional judgment" and experience to make alterations. In some sense, meteorologists are the last people on earth you want to forecast the weather because we enjoy the major weather events so much. But eventually reality has to rule and this is such a case.

It is clear now that the trend of several of the forecast models is to bring the low and the associated warm air farther north and to move things in earlier. Yes, we might get some light initial snow but right now it looks like it will rapidly turn to rain near sea level.

Before discussing the mid-week event, I should note that our forecasts were pretty good for today, a mixture of rain showers near sea level over Puget Sound and snow showers in the convergence zone and over NW Washington is now occurring. Bellingham and environs has had 1-2 inches (see image at top). Bellingham and NW Washington is being helped along by northeasterly flow coming out of the Fraser River Valley (see surface plot below). Some snow has also fallen over the San Juans and northeast of Olympics such as near Sequim (no jokes about Sequim golfers and retirees in this post). And moderate snow is falling in the Cascades. The freezing level is around 700 ft right now and snow can push to the surface where the intensities are moderate.

OK, lets talk about the potential snowstorm. The type of event is different than the recent snowstorms of the past few years, which have been associated with convergence zones or disturbances coming out of the north. The midweek event was going to be an over-running snowstorm, in which cold air was in place and an approaching major Pacific system pushes moist over over the low level cold air, resulting in snow...and potentially lots of it. A great example of such an over-running snow event occurred during the last week of December 1996. In fact, there were two of them that week. At my house there was nearly 20 inches of snow on the ground by the end.

The issue with overrunning snow events is that many are associated with low centers and associated fronts. If the low goes too far south, you stay cold and dry. (meteorologists hate that!). If it goes north of us, we are warm, wet and often windy. To get massive snow, the low needs to go south of us, close enough to give us the precipitation but far enough to keep the warmest air at bay. And the low south of us helps pull nice cold BC air into the region. When this sets up right you can get HUGE snowstorms, but everything has to be perfect.

Several days ago the model solution looked very good for big snow...the low crossing the coast and staying near the Oregon/WA border. Major snows to the north over WA. And the fun did not stop there--more disturbances followed along a similar route. Big time snow. It might have been the end of KING-TV SnowMeister Jim Forman. At least he would need a second parka. As I noted in my previous post--there was considerable uncertainty in the solution and some major modeling systems (like the Canadian GEM model) were taking the low north of us.

During the last two days the main U.S. global model (GFS) has altered its solution . Precipitation comes in much earlier (early Wed morning) and the low moves farther north.

Let me show you. Here are several forecasts, starting at different times but all valid at the same time.

First a forecast of sea level pressure and temperature (shading,yellow is warm and blue is cold) for Wednesday at 4 PM for a forecasting starting Wednesday at 4 PM. Nice and cold, with the low well to the south.


Here is the latest forecast valid at the same time. See the difference? The low and associate warm front is way farther north.

In the latest runs, precipitation starts coming in late Tuesday...and yes, it could start as snow, but there would be a rapid switch to rain at low levels.

Here is the latest 24-h period snow forecasts. First the 24-h ending Wednesday at 4 AM. Up to six inches along the coast, over SW Washington and the mountains, but only a few inches at most near Puget Sound.



And here is the subsequent 24h ending Thursday at 4 AM. The influence of warmer air is obvious--only in the far northern portion of western WA is snow maintained. But the Cascades gets hammered and snow is king over eastern WA.

Again, there is uncertainty of the forecasts, but that uncertainty is dropping as we get closer to the event. Bottom line: most of you will see snow, but the huge event suggested few days ago appears much more unlikely. Also, be VERY careful when looking at forecasts more than 3-4 days out, particularly events where the exact location of weather features are critical.

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Historic Snowstorm This Week?

I have a lot to talk about.

Some of you have been commenting about the potential for a big event next week and the National Weather Service and the media have been hinting about it. I will analyze the possibility in this blog. Taken literally, the latest model runs based on the U.S. global modeling system suggest a major lowland snowstorm late on Wednesday and on Thursday. And lets be clear up front: the event is a long ways off (Wednesday/Thursday) and uncertainties are still large. Exactly who will get the most snow is not clear. Portland, SW Washington, Puget Sound? And in this blog I will discuss how we estimate and deal with the uncertainties.

Act I, the Cool Down: Lets begin with today. During the afternoon we had a marvelous cold frontal passage, with a large windshift from southerly to northerly, sharp pressure trough, and moderate rain. As the front passed by and the winds swung to northwesterly along the coast a nice Puget Sound convergence zone formed (see radar below), dampening the bicycle commute home for many.

Although temperatures are rapidly falling aloft, it is still way too warm for snow over the lowlands, and will continue to be too warm until tomorrow in most locations.

This is the first act of our little weather play.

Act II, The Tease: Colder air will move into British Columbia and Washington tomorrow and by tomorrow evening it will be cold enough to snow over the Puget Sound lowlands (even earlier in the day above 500 ft and where precipitation intensity is greatest). Later tomorrow cold northeasterly winds will start pushing southwestward through the Fraser River Gap. Several convergence bands will be established tomorrow and early Sunday and some scattered showers will also occur. Many of these showers will be snow. At most places it will be flurries and light, but in some of the convergence bands perhaps an inch or two will be possible. And Sequim and Port Angeles could get some upslope snow again. Very similar to a week ago. The models suggest that the Portland area could get some light snow on Sunday from a weak disturbance moving down the coast.

Act III: Waiting-Cold and Dry

As the cold air pushes south, the showers will end over northern Washington and the drying will push south during the day. By Monday, the region will be cold and dry. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday morning will drop back into the 20s and the the highs will only reach into the 30s. Sunny, but cold.

Act IV: Snowapocalypse?

The cold air will be in place and then a Pacific weather system will approach from the west and southwest, pushing moisture over the region...as snow north of the Oregon/Washington border. Here is a surface chart showing what the UW WRF model expects for Thursday morning at 4 AM:You can see the Pacific low pressure system off of southern/central Oregon and the cold air (blue colors over Washington). Cold air will be moving into NW WA through the Fraser Gap and over lower terrain at this time. Precipitation will move into Oregon late on Wednesday and snow will extend northward. Here is the snowfall for the 24h period ending 4 AM on Thursday. Eastern Oregon and the Cascades down into the foothills get snow. Portland gets snow as does southern WA.

The snow will then extend northward. Here is the next 24-h:

Several inches of snow gets to Seattle, but the heaviest stuff is to the south, with roughly a foot in the Portland area and roughly half a foot to Olympia. The previous run had the heaviest snow over Seattle. This is all followed by snow showers and continued cold.


Bottom line: Although each run is a little different in low intensity and position, all have the same general solution with some area in the NW lowlands being hit by significant snow. These are all based on the American GFS (Global Forecast System) model, downscaled with the high-resolution WRF model. The European Center Model, which is generally superior to the GFS, takes the low north of us and we get rain. So does the Canadian GEM model. The weather will crucially depend on the position of the low--if it goes north of us we get rain, just south of us, a big snowstorm, too far south, nothing. We need to wait to really know what is going to happen. Hopefully, by Monday the solutions will pull together and our confidence in an evolution will increase.

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What is the Coldest Time of the Day?

It is a cold, clear winter night. No fronts or storms are coming in. What time will there be the coldest temperatures on average?

midnight?
3 AM?
5 AM?
Ten minutes before sunrise?
At sunrise?
Some time during the 1/2 hr after sunrise.
None of the above.

The answer, believe it or not, is during the 1/2 hr after sunrise.

Here is an example during the past week (31 December) at the UW. Sunrise was at 7:57 AM, and the coldest temperature was few minutes later (click for larger image)


So why are the lowest temperatures so late? Its all about energy in and energy out. When more energy is leaving the surface then coming in, the temperature cools. More energy in than leaving, warming.

There are two main energy streams at the surface. First, at all times of the day the surface is emitting radiation, mainly in the infrared. The warmer the surface, the more infrared it emits. Then there is solar radiation coming in during the day. There can also be heat conducted from the underlying surface, but lets neglect that here (and the temperatures shown above were from a temperature sensor above the ground).

At night, after sunset, there is no solar heating, so the infrared cooling to space cools the surface . The cooling is often more rapid at first but continues through the night since the infrared loss to space continues. So the lowest temperature SHOULD wait at least until sunrise. However, cooling can continue for a short while AFTER sunrise. Why? Because initially the sun is very low in the sky and the solar radiation is very weak, weaker than the infrared loss to space. As long as this is true, the temperatures will continue to fall, EVEN THOUGH THE SUN IS UP!

Anyway, a nice weather factoid to amaze your friends and concern your enemies.

There was a nice rain shadow today for the Puget Sound lowlands (see radar image below ). The winds were relatively westerly so the rain shadow rotated over Seattle and the nearby lowlands. Those smug folks in Sequim and Port Townsend got rain today due to the rotated winds (they get the rainshadow during the more normal southerly or southwesterly flow).

By the way, I would not be surprised if some of the Sequim denizens were originally from southern CALIFORNIA ! In fact, I frequently get calls from Californians looking to retire in Washington, asking if Sequim is really about as dry as LA. After I tell them about the cacti and the irrigation festival, they are ready to pack their bags! When I describe the lavender farms and nearby Hurricane Ridge, they are rushing to call the moving van. But then I mention the winds....


Ah yes...the cold is on for this weekend. And I would be surprised if someone in the lowlands doesn't get a bit of snow. But no big snowstorm at this point. But more on that later.

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Major Weather Changes Ahead and Scattered Light Snow Tonight

We've had nearly a week of sunny skies, below normal temperatures, and lots of frost. In fact, I had so much frost around my neighborhood it looked like a light snowfall had occurred.

And now it is all going to change, first with a turn towards wet conditions, then cold, and then a huge ridge will develop and we will turn dry and sunny again.

The changes were obvious today with considerable clouds moving in prior to an approaching Pacific front. The latest infrared satellite pictures shows a complex series of disturbances moving our way and the latest radar (not shown here) indicates the first showers reaching Puget Sound. These disturbances are associated with substantial warming of the lower atmosphere--something you will notice tomorrow.


An interesting issue is the scouring out of the cold air in eastern Washington. Not unlike a bowl, cold air settles in to the depression of eastern Washington and it takes some time to remove that air as the weather changes. Here is a close-in view of the temperatures and pressure over the region at 4 PM--the cold air is shown by the blue colors. With that cold air in place for a while, the precipitation tonight will certainly fall as snow east of the crest for an extended period. What about the western half of the State? The air right now is warming, but still fairly cold. There could be some light snow tonight in some locations of western Washington before it turns to rain, particularly places above 200-300 ft. It should all be history by commute time tomorrow, so the DOT folks can rest easy.

After the transition we will be in a moist, warm flow through Friday morning. Sort of like a junior pineapple express. Here is the predicted precipitation over the next 72h:2-5 inches in the Washington Cascades and nearly twice that in the mountains of BC. California stays dry for a change.

On Friday morning a strong cold front will move in and behind it the air will cool rapidly...in fact by mid-day Saturday it will be cold enough to snow here. Here is a predicted surface chart at 10 AM Friday...this is a beautiful front...far stronger than we normally get. Huge wind shift and a big drop in temperatures behind it. Normally our fronts are really wimpy around here...why? Because of the homogenizing effects of passage over thousands of miles of ocean.
The question I know you want answered next: will it snow over the lowlands this weekend? Well for snow lovers we have the classic problem...right now precipitation is mainly over over the lowlands by the time it is cold enough for snow. But there is still substantial uncertainty about the distribution of precipitation on Saturday, so we will have to watch things. At this point the models are showing some light snow showers on Sunday. In any case, there will be plenty of snow in the mountains before Saturday...probably 1-2 feet before all the action is over the next few days.

Keep in mind the following: our ability to forecast the temperature of the air is far better than our ability to predict precipitation intensity and distribution. The upcoming cold you can bank on, the distribution of precipitation of precipitation and snow you can't. At least until we get closer in time.

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Common Core Math Standards: Worse for Our Kids and Millions of Dollars Wasted?

A major decision is going to be made by this session of the Washington State legislature--one that will profoundly affect math education in our state and one that could cost the state tens or hundreds of millions of dollars at at a time when budgets are extraordinarily tight. This decision is flying under the radar of most of the media and many politicians.

The decision? Should Washington State adopt the new "national" Common Core math standards produced by the National Governor's Association and the Council of Chief State School Officers, giving up our new and highly enhanced math standards adopted in 2008.

This is important, so stay with me.

A little history first. As described in numerous media reports and national studies, the performance of U.S. students in math is lagging that of students in many other nations. And I have certainly seen math deficiencies increase while I have been teaching at the UW. If we are to remain a leading technological nation this cannot continue. Now the reasons for this decline are really not hard to find, ranging from many teachers have insufficient knowledge in mathematics, poor math standards in many states, trendy new-age instructional ideas (e.g., "Discovery" and "Integrated" mathematics) in vogue in schools of education, and yes, issues of student discipline, motivation and family support.

Recently, we have made substantial progress in our state, including the adoption of much-improved state math standards, the rejection of "Discovery Math" in many districts (e.g., Shoreline, Bellevue) and the acquisition of very good new books in some of these districts. There are, of course, some disaster districts, such as Seattle and Issaquah, who insist on retaining some of the worst textbooks and are providing their kids with an inferior math education. But overall, we are in a better place than a few years ago.

A number of well-meaning groups, such as the Gates Foundation and some in the Obama administration, have concluded that the U.S. math deficiency should be addressed by adopting national math standards. Now a major issue for such standards is that the Federal Government does not have authority over education, that being one of the powers retained by the states. To deal with this "problem" the National Governor's Association and the Council of Chief State School Officers established a group of mathematicians, educators, and curriculum specialists to put together a set of national Common Core math standards, standards that were released last year. (As I will discuss later, these standards are not well written, lack any associated assessments, and are completely untested.)



Without any real regulatory authority to push these standards into local districts, the Obama Administration has dangled a large financial carrot in front of the financially strapped states--- hundreds of millions of dollars from the federal "Race to the Top" initiative. In fact, states have been so desperate that many have agreed to adopt the new Common Core math standards sight unseen and untested as part of their applications for Race to the Top (RtTT) cash.

In a bid to get some of the RtTT money, Washington provisionally adopted the standards last year (Senate Bill 6696), and that the legislation allows our Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) to adopt the Common Core standards if the legislature this year does nothing to stop it. In other words, we are going to go with Common Core if the legislature doesn't act this session to delay or stop it.

Ironically, Washington State's application to the Race to the Top (RtTT) program was declined for a number of reasons, including our unwillingness to take on another RtTT requirement--adopting charter schools. So we have agreed to replace our new excellent math standards, standards given an "A" by the Fordham Foundation and adopted in 2008, with an untested new program, and we will get none of the funds we were after.

But it is even worse than that--there are huge costs in switching to the Common Core standards. Moving to our new 2008 standards, the state spent over 30 million dollars in training over one year. Certainly, the switch to the Common Core standards could equal or exceed such costs. And what about changing millions of textbooks for nearly a million WA State students to be consistent with the new standards? Hundreds of millions of dollars? All of this in a state which is critically short of funds, where K-12 and universities are taking major cuts, and where the social safety net is being frayed by major cutbacks. Folks, this doesn't make sense.

Now are the new Common Core standards better than the current ones enjoyed in our state? The answer is a clearly no. As noted before, the Fordham Foundation rated ours higher and a review by the state math watchdog group, wheresthemath.com, has documented a number of problems Common Core compared to our current standards. Some examples:

(1) Common Core standards are extraordinarily difficult to read and decipher, a critical requirement for any standard. It is will be very difficult for most teachers to understand what they need to be teaching--which is a huge problem. Want an example? Here is an example of a fifth grade Common Core standard:

Interpret the product (a/b) × q as a parts of a partition of q into b equal parts; equivalently, as the result of a sequence of operations a × q ÷ b. For example, use a visual fraction model to show (2/3) × 4 = 8/3, and create a story context for this equation. Do the same with (2/3) × (4/5) = 8/15. (In general, (a/b) × (c/d) = ac/bd.)

and plenty are a lot worse than this. On the other hand, our current standards have far greater clarity.

(2) Common Core delays teaching many basic mathematical ideas, from essential mathematical operations to algebra.

More problems are described in the links at the bottom of this blog.

As noted above, there have been no pilots or tests of these new standards. No proof that they enhance student performance. Can you imagine pushing a new national math standard without insuring that students learn better with them? An extraordinary mistake.

Assessments of new standards determine what will be taught and how it will be taught (we learned this to our sorrow with the ill-fated WASL!). Assessments for the new standards have not yet been created, so there is no way to evaluate this crucial component.

There, of course, is a political dimension to all this. In essence it represents the transfer of local prerogatives on educational standards to a national entity, an issue of of concern to some. If the national standards and assessments WERE better, would we want to give up local determination of this issue? I wont debate that issue in this blog. In addition, it is not clear who will control the evolving Common Core standards. A number of people involved in the "reform" and "discovery" math movement are active in it--what if they gained control? Could this end up a huge national disaster?

So we have basically two choices:

(1) We can continue with the adoption of the new, unproven Common Core math standards, standards that are inferior to what we have now. We will then be committed to spending hundreds of millions of new dollars on this transition...money we really don't have. If the legislature doesn't act, this is what will happen.

(2) We can decide to wait. Stay with OUR new State math standards that are now in place, with all their advantages. Watch carefully and see if some of the Common Core issues noted above are resolved. Our State can remain engaged with national efforts, but we wait to see if Common Core evolves. I believe this is the only logical and prudent course of action. To do so, the legislature must take positive action to delay implementation of Common Core or revoke its adoption (this mean revocation of SB 6696, Sec 601, which passed last year). Thus, it is important that each of you contact your legislators to let them know you feelings on this critical issue.

Legislative Hotline ist 1.800.562.6000.

To find a list of state legislator e-mail addresses go to http://www.leg.wa.gov/pages/home.aspx

It is time for the Governor, Superintendent Randy Dorn, and leaders in the State legislature to show some leadership on this critical issue. And well-funded groups like the Gates Foundation and State business groups need to take a more informed approach. It is so frustrating that those with the power to deal with this issue, fall back on the same tired ideas and listen to the same educational consultants. Schools of Education are generally a big part of the problem, not the solution.

It is perhaps an American deficiency that we jump for quick fixes, without taking the time to carefully determine and address the real core problems. The rush to push untested Common Core math standards on states around the country is a real symptom of our inability to solve our big problems. It is time to do better and we can do so in WA State by not joining the stampede. Some states, such as Texas, Virgina, Alaska and Minnesota have already declined to participate. There is no reason to rush into this and many reasons to wait.

Some links with further information:

http://pioneerinstitute.org/pdf/100223_why_race_to_the_middle.pdf

http://www.pioneerinstitute.org/pdf/common_core_standards.pdf

http://soundmath.wetpaint.com/page/Washington+State+%26+the+Common+Core+State+Standards

http://edexcellencemedia.net/publications/2010/201007_state_education_standards_common_standards/Washington.pdf

http://www.wheresthemath.com/

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Upcoming Drought

Washington

California

You may not believe it, but we are now starting a mini-drought here in Seattle. After a wetter than normal year, there is now no precipitation in sight until the middle of next week. And even better than that, there will also be considerable sunshine each day, which really helps lessen the midwinter blues.

This is all caused by a strong ridge of high pressure over us (see image) and an associated split in the jet stream with

disturbances and rain hitting central and southern CA (see the precipitation forecast over the next 72 h shown below).


Those poor devils in southern CA are getting hit hard, with many locations in southern CA "enjoying" their wettest or second wettest December on record. Downtown Los Angeles has received 10.23 inches this month, 8.4 inches above normal. Snowpack in the Sierras is over 200% of normal....well they wanted more precipitation!

Returning to our situation, Seattle has had 46.99 inches this year, 10.09 inches above normal. Last year Seattle had 38.17 inches...pretty close to normal. Olympia has had 55.44 inches this year, ONLY 4.89 inches above normal (yes, Olympia is much wetter than Seattle, because Seattle is rain shadowed by the Olympics). And Spokane has had 19.03 inches, 2.36 inches above normal. So this has been a relatively wet year over the state. Cascade snowpack is near normal at this point.

Finally, there is one negative with a ridge of high pressure above us this time of year--cold temperatures at the surface with lots of frost. Clear skies allows the earth to radiate energy to space through the long winter night, resulting in cooling at the surface and the development of nocturnal inversions (temperature increasing with height). The roofs are white outside my window right now. And one can also get freezing fog, so be carefully while driving if you see any fog around.

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Convergence Zone Snow

As shown below, the convergence zone snow is continuing and strengthening in southern Snohomish County....some of the roads have gotten problematic.


You can watch this event unfold (and know what is going to happen to you during the next hour) by viewing the radar animation:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ATX

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

Latest NWS Spotter Reports"

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
747 AM PST WED DEC 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             3 NE MILL CREEK         47.89N 122.16W
12/29/2010  M1.0 INCH        SNOHOMISH          WA   NWS EMPLOYEE   

            SNOWING. VISIBILITY BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE-QUARTERS OF
            A MILE. SNOW ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADS. ELEVATION ABOUT
            500 FEET.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 NNW EATONVILLE        46.94N 122.31W
12/29/2010  M2.5 INCH        PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW HAD STOPPED. ELEVATION 740 FEET.

0729 AM     SNOW             EVERETT                 47.96N 122.20W
12/29/2010  E2.5 INCH        SNOHOMISH          WA   PUBLIC         

            SILVER LAKE AREA

0730 AM     HEAVY SNOW       NW DUVALL               47.73N 121.97W
12/29/2010  M2.0 INCH        KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.

WSDOT is on top of this--here are some of their latest reports:

7:43 a.m., Wednesday, Dec. 29

Good morning,

Driver alerts:

• I-5 at 164th Street SW: Several disabled vehicles are blocking the northbound I-5 exit to 164th Street.
• I-405 near Alderwood: Multiple spinouts are blocking the two right lanes of southbound I-405.
• I-405 near Canyon Park: A disabled vehicle is blocking the northbound carpool lane just north of the interchange with SR 527.

Seattle is pretty much untouched by this at this point....

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Its Snowing! (But not everywhere)

I5 in North Lynnwood

During the past few hours it has been snowing in Everett and at Sea Tac but RAINING at Boeing Field and Renton. In fact, the snow was relatively hard around Everett to Lynnwood and is accumulating on the roads (see above). Why? There is an intense band of precipitation...very narrow... extending over Everett and environs...take a look at the radar to see:


The models were hinting at such a feature yesterday and it appears to be associated with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Temperatures are marginal for snow over the lowlands right now. Where precipitation is light in such situation..you get rain near sea level. But at higher lowland stations and where precip is heavy you can get snow. What is the freezing level right now? You can find that out using the Seattle profiler, a device that gives us wind and temperature aloft in real time. Here is the temperature plot (actually something called virtual temperature so subtract one degree C for regular temp):Looking at this, the freezing level is about 400 meters (roughly 1300 ft) and the snow level can drop to around 1000 ft below the freezing level (takes about 1000 ft to melt completely). Paine Field and Sea Tac are also relatively high (roughly 500 ft). All our precipitation starts as snow higher up in the atmosphere, but usually melts in the warmer atmosphere near the surface. Intensity is important because precipitation evaporates and melts as it falls, causing the freezing levels and snow levels to drop. Heavier precipitation...the freezing level drops more.

So today will be a difficult challenge. Our temperatures are marginal for snow at sea level. On the higher hills (above 300 ft) the chances of snow are increased and where precipitation is heavy the snow level could descend to sea level. So watch the radar. If the convergence zone revs up perhaps we might see a few inches near sea level in the central Sound. If not, this could be a big bust for snow lovers in Seattle. Again, this is NOT November 22! The ground temps are above freezing and air temps are above freezing. The road surfaces are not going to freeze, although slushy snow can be a bit slippery. And daytime and warmer temps are coming.

This convergence zone will probably slip south during the morning and probably weaken later...but the details are everything now.

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