It is increasingly apparent that this spring will not be a repeat of the damp, cold abomination of Spring 2011. Today Seattle hit 68F and yesterday 70F....well above the normal high of 57F. In 2011, the first day to hit 70F was
MAY 20th. In contrast to last month, April has brought us below-normal precipitation (only .31 inches so far, .63 inches below normal), and that should continue for at least the next week.
To further warm your heart, the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day forecasts suggest above normal temperatures for the western U.S. (see graphic) and the European Centre's
forecasts for the upcoming weekend is for ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE and more warmth (the ensemble mean and high resolution forecast for the upper level flow is shown below).
Although tomorrow should also be warmer than normal and relatively dry away from the coast, our temperatures will decline to near normal during the middle and end of the week, with a probability of some light rain on Wednesday onwards. Here is the forecast for precipitation during the next 72 h. The NW lowlands only get light stuff, while most of the precipitation is heading into northern California. Note the near absence of precipitation east of the WA Cascades. Good place for a hike.
The eastern two-thirds of the U.S. has been extraordinarily warm, so warm that is overcame a cool West Coat to produce
the warmest March on record for the lower 48 states (since 1895).
But do not conclude this was due to global warming. The upper level wave patterns of the atmosphere were highly disturbed the last month, with some places much colder than normal (e.g, Alaska, West Coast) and others (eastern U.S.) much warmer. Here are the temperature anomalies for the last 30 days. You will notice how the temperatures anomalies vary from much warmer than normal over the central U.S. (reds) to colder than normal temperatures over Alaska and NE Asia (blues and purples)
At this point, there is
no reason to expect this pattern is due to man-caused global warming.
And folks, it is surely too early to put you tomato plants outside!
